广场协议后日本和德国宏观经济政策的实践及启示

发布时间：2018-05-25 01:09

本文选题：广场协议 + 宏观经济政策　；参考：《河北大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近十几年来随着中国经济的快速发展，特别是自2005年央行宣布施行以市场供求为基础、参考一揽子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，人民币面临着巨大的升值压力，到2013年初，人民币兑美元的汇率升值33%。在人民币汇率快速升值的情况下，如何保障中国经济平稳快速的发展，研究这一问题，我们需要借鉴外国的经验教训。在20世纪70、80年代，日本和德国经济快速的发展，贸易顺差也随之扩大。1985年西方五国召开“广场协议”，会议要求马克和日元升值，以抑制德国和日本逐渐扩大的贸易顺差。日本和德国在国际压力下，开始了本币升值的历程，虽然两国面临的情况相同，但两国采取了不同的宏观经济策略。日本希望通过扩张性货币政策和财政政策以及急速的金融自由化来解决日元升值的压力，这造成日本在很长一段时期内保持着超低的利率和大规模的国内土地开发计划，结果导致了日本土地价格和股价居高不下形成了经济泡沫。90年代日本发现经济中问题的存在，开始实施紧缩的政策，，结果政策力度过大导致泡沫经济破灭，日本进入的长达十年的萧条。而德国面对马克升值的压力，采取的货币政策和财政政策较缓和，同时国内独立的中央银行体制以及合理的政策目标操作，使得马克升值并未给德国的经济造成过多不良反应,而德国早期加入了欧洲货币联动机制，也为马克升值缓解了压力。中国经济发展状况和日德两国的经济状况十分相似，吸收日本和德国的经验以应对人民币升值保证中国经济的平稳发展。对比日本和德国采取的各方面的宏观经济政策，为解决人民币升值提出一些启示。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy, especially since 2005, when the central bank announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a package of currencies, the RMB has faced tremendous pressure of appreciation. By early 2013, the yuan had appreciated against the dollar by 33 cents. In the case of the rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, how to ensure the steady and rapid development of China's economy, we need to learn from the experience and lessons of foreign countries to study this issue. In the 1970s and 1980s, with the rapid economic development of Japan and Germany, the trade surplus also expanded. In 1985, the five Western countries called for the appreciation of the mark and the yen in order to restrain the gradual expansion of the trade surplus between Germany and Japan. Japan and Germany have embarked on a process of appreciation of their currencies under international pressure. Although the two countries face the same situation, the two countries have adopted different macroeconomic strategies. Japan hopes to address the pressure of yen appreciation through expansionary monetary and fiscal policies and rapid financial liberalization, which has led Japan to maintain ultra-low interest rates and large-scale domestic land development plans for a long time. As a result, Japan's high land prices and stock prices formed an economic bubble. In the 1990s, Japan discovered the existence of problems in the economy and began to implement austerity policies. As a result, excessive policy intensity led to the bursting of the bubble economy. A decade-long depression in Japan. In the face of the pressure of the appreciation of the mark, Germany adopted a relatively mild monetary and fiscal policy, while the independent central banking system and the operation of reasonable policy objectives made the appreciation of the mark not cause too many adverse reactions to the German economy. And early Germany joined the European currency linkage mechanism, also for the appreciation of the mark eased the pressure. China's economic development is very similar to that of Japan and Germany, absorbing the experience of Japan and Germany to cope with the appreciation of the yuan to ensure the smooth development of China's economy. By comparing the macroeconomic policies adopted by Japan and Germany, this paper puts forward some enlightenments to solve the problem of RMB appreciation.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F131.3;F151.6

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