政府生产性支出与中国的实际经济波动

发布时间：2018-05-25 04:26

本文选题：政府生产性支出 + 政府支出结构　；参考：《经济研究》2014年11期

【摘要】：中国过去的宏观经济实践显示出政府对生产性财政支出政策的强烈偏好,在涉及基础设施等公共资本的生产性支出方面更是着意倾斜。本文将政府生产性支出纳入生产函数,构建存在不完全竞争的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究了政府生产性支出对中国经济增长和经济波动所造成的影响。研究表明:(1)利用贝叶斯估计得到的公共资本产出份额大约为10%,同时表明政府支出确实会造成生产的外部性;(2)政府生产性支出冲击是产出波动的重要影响因素,该冲击能解释约23%的总产出波动;(3)政府生产性支出冲击对居民消费和私人投资造成了短期"挤出"效应,长期"挤入"效应,另外该冲击有利于促进经济体系资本持续性积累。
[Abstract]:China's past macroeconomic practices have shown a strong preference for productive fiscal spending policies, especially in the areas of productive spending involving public capital such as infrastructure. In this paper, the government productive expenditure is incorporated into the production function, and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete competition is constructed, and the effect of government productive expenditure on the economic growth and economic fluctuation in China is studied. The study shows that the share of public capital output obtained by Bayesian estimation is about 10, and that government expenditure does cause externality of production. (2) the impact of government productive expenditure is an important factor influencing the fluctuation of output. This shock can explain the fluctuation of total output of about 23%) the impact of government productive expenditure has caused short-term "crowding out" effect on residents' consumption and private investment, and long-term "crowding in" effect. In addition, this shock is conducive to the sustainable accumulation of capital in the economic system.
【作者单位】：江西财经大学经济学院;河南财经政法大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71463017) 江西省社会科学规划项目(11JL08) 河南省政府决策研究招标课题(2013B023) 河南财经政法大学校内重大课题(2012)的资助
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.8

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