区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响

发布时间：2018-06-01 10:56

本文选题：PM + 空间效应　；参考：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年07期

【摘要】：目前,中国大气污染问题愈发严峻,由大气污染所导致的公共健康风险及经济损失日益突出,探询污染的形成原因、影响因素是制定治理政策的重要依据。本文针对大气污染的主要污染物PM10进行研究,特别探讨中国31个省市自治区本地与异地之间PM10交互影响的问题及产业结构影响。首先,分析全局空间相关性,发现地区间PM10存在着空间自相关,且逐年增强;其次分析局域相关性,发现中国北方部分地区出现高-高类型的集聚,主要集中于北京、天津、河北、山西、山东、河南、黑龙江、吉林和辽宁等9个省份;南方部分地区出现低-低类型的集聚,主要集中于广东、海南、广西、贵州以及云南等5个省份。虽出现个别年份的波动,但从长期看,各集聚区均处于较稳定状态;第三,建立空间计量模型对PM10进行比较全面的模型数据分析,包括经济社会、经济结构以及气候等因素对PM10的影响,以较为新颖的视角刻画PM10的形成,发现地区间PM10的交互影响存在着"负效应",分析表明这种"负效应"具有短期性,而且"负效应"与"溢出效应"可能存在联系。此外,重点分析工业中对PM10贡献较大的典型行业,以及以典型行业为代表的工业结构对我国东、中、西部地区PM10的影响特点,与劣质煤进口量逐年增大的事实相结合,阐述了降低PM10的困难所在。最后,基于实证分析结果论证影响不同地区PM10的主导因素,空间因素对PM10的影响,长期看在部分地区通过产业转移的方式降低PM10的不可行性;论证中,以北京地区为主要分析案例,发现交通拥堵程度以及空间因素是其出现高雾霾的重要原因。根治雾霾,区域间的联合治理势在必行。
[Abstract]:At present, the problem of air pollution in China is becoming more and more serious, and the public health risk and economic loss caused by air pollution are becoming more and more prominent. In this paper, PM10, the main pollutant of air pollution, is studied, and the interaction of PM10 between local and foreign regions in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions of China and the influence of industrial structure are discussed in particular. First of all, by analyzing the global spatial correlation, we find that there is spatial autocorrelation among regions, and it is increasing year by year. Secondly, by analyzing the local correlation, we find that some areas in northern China have high to high types of agglomeration, mainly concentrated in Beijing and Tianjin. Nine provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, and some areas in the south have low-low concentration, mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan provinces. Although there are fluctuations in individual years, in the long run, all the agglomeration areas are in a more stable state. Thirdly, the establishment of spatial metrological models to carry out a more comprehensive model data analysis of PM10, including economic and social, The influence of economic structure and climate on PM10 is described in a novel way. It is found that there is a "negative effect" in the interaction of PM10 between regions. The analysis shows that this kind of "negative effect" is short-term. Moreover, the negative effect may be related to the spillover effect. In addition, the emphasis is placed on the analysis of the typical industries that contribute more to PM10 in industry, and the influence of the industrial structure represented by typical industries on PM10 in the east, middle and western regions of China, combined with the fact that the import of inferior coal is increasing year by year. The difficulty of reducing PM10 is expounded. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, it is demonstrated that the dominant factors affecting PM10 in different regions and the influence of spatial factors on PM10 are not feasible to reduce PM10 through industrial transfer in some regions in the long run. Taking Beijing area as the main case study, it is found that traffic congestion and spatial factors are the important reasons for its high haze. Radical cure haze, the joint management between regions is imperative.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院;中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“跨区域碳减排的技术经济优化路径及政策研究”(编号:13CJY009) 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所重点课题“跨区域碳减排的技术经济优化路径及政策研究”
【分类号】：X51;F121.3

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