基于三区域CGE模型的东部地区产业转移模拟研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 01:00

本文选题：东部地区 + 产业转移　；参考：《湖南科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年世界金融危机以来，国际产业分工经历了深刻变化，在复杂的国际国内形势下，我国工业经济的发展正经受严峻的考验。东部地区土地使用成本上涨、人工成本提高、能源等要素价格增加，产业同构、环境污染等问题日益严重，使得该地区产业发展空间处于相对饱和状态，从而阻碍了产业转型升级，限制了高端制造业、高新技术产业和现代服务业的发展。为此，东部地区有必要推动失去比较优势的传统产业向外转移，为新兴产业和高端产业发展腾出空间。产业转移是推进产业结构调整、加快转变经济发展方式、形成合理产业分工体系的有效途径，也是优化生产力空间布局、缩小地区发展差距、实现区域协调发展的必然要求。当前，我国东部地区向中西部地区的产业转移浪潮已经席卷全国并向中西部纵深地区推进，转移规模不断扩大，转移步伐不断加快。因此，，研究中国区级产业转移的主要趋势及其影响因素，具有重要的现实意义。本文围绕经济环境变化对东部沿海地区产业转移的影响问题，首先对国内外现有产业转移的研究成果进行归纳和梳理，并对相关理论进行分析，为本文的研究奠定理论基础；其次，利用2009-2011年东部地区的产业数据，对东部地区产业发展状况进行分析，结果表明：目前东部地区的主导产业为资本密集型产业和技术密集型产业，而劳动密集型产业在东部地区已经失去竞争力，急需向外转移；再次，根据我国实际情况，基于一般均衡理论，构建了三区域CGE模型，并利用2007年三区域社会核算矩阵对模型中的参数进行估计。同时，结合我国东部地区产业转移现状，设计模拟情景，对劳动力、资本、企业所得税和企业间接税对东部地区产业转移的影响进行模拟研究，模拟发现：劳动力、资本、企业所得税和企业间接税对东部地区产业转移均具有重要影响；且劳动投入量和资本投入量对东部地区产业转移的影响大于企业所得税和企业间接税。最后，结合本文的结论，从东部地区和中西部地区的角度出发，分别提出了东部地区促进产业转移和中西部地区积极承接产业转移的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 world financial crisis, the international industrial division of labor has undergone profound changes. Under the complicated international and domestic situation, the development of China's industrial economy is undergoing a severe test. The rising cost of land use, the increase of labor cost, the increase of the price of energy and other factors, the industrial isomorphism and the environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious in the eastern region, which makes the industrial development space in this area relatively saturated. This hinders the industrial transformation and upgrading and limits the development of high-end manufacturing, high-tech industry and modern service industry. Therefore, it is necessary for the eastern region to promote the outward transfer of traditional industries that have lost their comparative advantage, so as to make room for the development of emerging and high-end industries. Industrial transfer is an effective way to promote the adjustment of industrial structure, accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, and form a reasonable industrial division system. It is also an inevitable requirement for optimizing the spatial distribution of productive forces, narrowing the regional development gap and realizing regional coordinated development. At present, the industrial transfer tide from the eastern region to the central and western regions has swept the whole country and pushed forward to the deep part of the central and western regions. The scale of the transfer has been continuously expanded, and the pace of the transfer has been continuously accelerated. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the main trend and influencing factors of regional industrial transfer in China. This paper focuses on the influence of the change of economic environment on the industrial transfer in the eastern coastal areas. Firstly, it summarizes and combs the existing research results of industrial transfer at home and abroad, and analyzes the relevant theories, which lays a theoretical foundation for the research of this paper. Secondly, using the industrial data of the eastern region from 2009-2011 to analyze the industrial development situation in the eastern region, the results show that the dominant industries in the eastern region are capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industries. The labor-intensive industry has lost its competitiveness in the eastern region and needs to be transferred to the outside. Thirdly, according to the actual situation of our country, based on the general equilibrium theory, a three-region CGE model is constructed. The parameters of the model are estimated by using the three-region social accounting matrix in 2007. At the same time, according to the present situation of industrial transfer in the eastern region of China, the paper designs a simulation scenario to simulate the influence of labor force, capital, enterprise income tax and enterprise indirect tax on the industrial transfer in eastern China. Enterprise income tax and enterprise indirect tax have important influence on industrial transfer in eastern region, and the influence of labor input and capital input on industrial transfer in eastern region is greater than that on enterprise income tax and indirect enterprise tax. Finally, based on the conclusion of this paper, from the point of view of the eastern region and the central and western regions, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions for promoting industrial transfer and actively undertaking industrial transfer in the eastern region and the central and western region respectively.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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