供给和需求冲击下的全要素生产率变动与中国产能过剩

发布时间：2018-06-28 20:32

本文选题：全要素生产率 + 产能过剩　；参考：《南京社会科学》2014年08期

【摘要】：产能过剩受供给与需求双重因素的影响。本文在已有研究的基础上,将我国全要素生产率分解为供给冲击、需求冲击和其他冲击,构造包含劳动与资本要素的计量方法,测算出我国的生产能力利用率及其变化,并实证检验我国产能过剩的本质特性及趋势特征。实证估计结果显示,我国产能过剩具有阶段性,是我国经济发展过程中供求关系的一个阶段性特征。2001年之前的大部分年份供给与需求冲击正相关且二者表现为积极冲击,2001年之后供给冲击稳定而正向需求冲击不断增加,由于产能过剩将伴随着供给冲击的增加和需求冲击的下降或者不变,因此进一步验证了我国不存在真正长期产能过剩的结论,产能过剩只是我国经济发展过程中供给与需求动态平衡过程中的暂时性特征。
[Abstract]:Overcapacity is affected by both supply and demand. Based on the existing research, this paper divides the total factor productivity into supply shock, demand shock and other shocks, constructs the measurement method including labor and capital elements, and calculates the productivity utilization rate and its change of our country. And empirical test of China's excess capacity of the essential characteristics and trend characteristics. Empirical estimates show that overcapacity in China is phased. It is a stage characteristic of supply and demand relationship in the process of economic development of our country. Most years before 2001, supply and demand shocks are positively related and both are positive shocks. After 2001, supply shocks are stable and positive demand shocks are increasing. Since overcapacity will be accompanied by the increase of supply shocks and the decrease or invariance of demand shocks, it further verifies that there is no real long-term overcapacity in China. Overcapacity is only a temporary feature in the process of dynamic balance between supply and demand in China's economic development.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“基于生产要素集聚与农民福利动态均衡的新型城镇化发展质量研究”(14BJL063);国家社科基金青年项目“我国现阶段潜在产出及产出缺口变动特征研究”(11CJL012)的阶段性成果教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“调整型经济增长对我国居民可持续性消费影响的实证研究”(13JJD790011)
【分类号】：F124

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