出口商品结构对中国经济发展方式转变的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-30 18:23

本文选题：出口商品结构 + 经济发展方式转变　；参考：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2011年至今，我国经济连续五个季度放缓，特别是今年以来，经济放缓压力进一步增大，市场弥漫着对中国经济形势悲观的预估。随着“人口红利”、“资源红利”衰竭以及“刘易斯拐点”的到来，我国经济发展进程将会继续放缓，转变经济发展方式被随之推到舆论顶端。我国经济发展方式的问题主要是重增长轻发展，且高增长是由出口拉动的，而出口结构的低级化带来了经济高增长与发展的诸多问题，因此，加快我国经济发展方式转变需要优化出口商品结构。本文采取理论与实证相结合的分析方法，，着重分析出口商品结构对中国经济发展方式转变的影响。首先，对出口商品结构影响中国经济发展方式转变的机理进行了分析。其次，利用大量的图表呈现了1985-2010年间我国出口商品结构演进情况，并采用主成分分析法综合测算出我国经济发展方式转变水平指数。再次，本文选取1985-2010年的年度数据，分别用ADF检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验分析了我国资源密集型商品、劳动密集型商品、资本技术密集型商品出口与经济发展方式转变水平指数之间的相关关系，并建立向量自回归模型，将上述四个变量纳入模型中，利用脉冲响应函数分析了经济发展方式转变水平指数对资源密集型商品、劳动密集型商品、资本技术密集型商品出口冲击的响应，并进一步利用方差分解检验了资源密集型商品、劳动密集型商品、资本技术密集型商品出口对经济发展方式转变水平指数变动的贡献度。本文的实证分析结果显示：1.虽然在1986年、1993年及2008年分别出现较显著的波动，但是我国经济发展方式转变水平总体处于向上的趋势，向着良性方向发展；2.资本技术密集型产品出口对经济发展方式的转变的冲击作用较大，劳动密集型产品出口次之，资源密集型产品出口对经济发展方式转变的解释能力相对较小。3.经济发展方式转变水平指数对资本技术密集型商品出口的冲击是一个逐渐向上并趋于平稳的正向反应，而对其他两个变量冲击的反应正好相反。根据研究结论，本文提出了相应的对策建议，主要有：积极推进出口商品结构区域性调整；加大RD投入力度，鼓励自主创新；增加传统出口产品的技术含量，提高其附加值，促进出口商品结构与国内产业结构的良性互动等。
[Abstract]:The country's economy has slowed for five consecutive quarters since 2011, especially this year, as slowing pressures have increased and bearish forecasts of China's economic situation have pervaded the market. With the arrival of "demographic dividend", "resource dividend" exhaustion and "Lewis inflection point", China's economic development process will continue to slow down, and the transformation of economic development mode will be pushed to the top of public opinion. The problems of the mode of economic development in our country are mainly emphasis on growth and light on development, and the high growth is driven by export, and the low level of export structure brings many problems of high economic growth and development. To speed up the transformation of our country's economic development mode, we need to optimize the structure of export commodities. This paper analyzes the influence of export commodity structure on the transformation of China's economic development mode by combining theory and practice. Firstly, the mechanism of export commodity structure influencing the transformation of China's economic development mode is analyzed. Secondly, a large number of charts are used to present the evolution of China's export commodity structure from 1985 to 2010, and the index of China's economic development mode transformation level is calculated by using principal component analysis (PCA). Thirdly, this paper selects the annual data from 1985 to 2010, and uses ADF test, cointegration test and Granger causality test to analyze the resource-intensive commodities and labor-intensive commodities in China. The correlation between the export of capital-technology-intensive commodities and the level index of economic development change, and the establishment of vector autoregressive model, the above four variables into the model, The impulse response function is used to analyze the response of the change level index of economic development mode to the export shock of resource-intensive commodity, labor-intensive commodity and capital-technology-intensive commodity. Furthermore, the contribution of resource-intensive commodity, labor-intensive commodity and capital-technology-intensive commodity export to the change of economic development level index is tested by variance decomposition. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that: 1. Although there were significant fluctuations in 1986, 1993 and 2008 respectively, the level of transformation of the mode of economic development in China is generally in an upward trend, toward the direction of benign development. The export of capital-technology intensive products has a great impact on the transformation of economic development mode, followed by labor-intensive products export, and resource-intensive products export has a relatively small explanatory power to the transformation of economic development mode. The level index of the change of economic development mode is a positive response to the export of capital-technology-intensive commodities gradually upward and stable, but the response to the other two variables is just the opposite. According to the conclusion of the research, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, including: actively promoting the regional adjustment of export commodity structure; increasing R D input to encourage independent innovation; increasing the technical content of traditional export products and increasing their added value. Promote the benign interaction between export commodity structure and domestic industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F752.62

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