经济增长、货币供应与股票市场三者之间关系的动态分析

发布时间：2018-07-02 21:13

本文选题：经济增长 + 货币供应量　；参考：《贵州财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前，国内外对货币供应量、股票市场和经济发展的理论与实证研究大多是两两平行的，对三者之间动态关联性进行分析的文章很少。近些年来，由于经济改革、各种各样的外界冲击和政策变化等因素的影响，，我国经济结构正在逐渐发生变化，而用以往的固定参数模型表现不出来这种经济结构的变化。因此，本文将采用可变参数模型——状态空间模型（State Space Model）对货币供应量、经济发展与股票市场的关系做出系统的分析。研究内容主要包括以下部分：第一，本文首先将回顾相关理论和实证文献，主要是货币供应理论、经济增长理论以及关于货币供应量、经济发展与股票市场的实证研究，从两方面对它们三者之间的关系进行梳理；第二，本文将使用相关数据，构建货币供应量、股票市场和经济发展之间的经济模型，对它们之间的关系进行实证分析；第三，本文将提出相关的对策建议，希望得出的结论有助于决策部门更有效地制定和实施货币政策，为建立完善股票市场稳定机制以及实现我国经济又快又稳的增长提供有效的借鉴依据。实证结果表明：第一，股票市场与货币供应量、经济增长两两之间以及它们三者之间具有长期稳定的协整关系，即使股票市场或者货币供应量出现短暂波动，也会在短时间内对经济增长产生相同方向的影响。第二，股票市场能够促进货币供应量的增加以及经济增长。同时，经济增长会增加对货币供应量的需求，反之货币供应量的变化也会对经济增长产生影响。第三，在短期内，股票市场对GDP的影响要大于货币供应量M2对GDP的影响；从长期看，货币供应量M2对GDP影响又要大于股票市场对GDP影响。第四，股票市场减弱了货币政策对实体经济的影响力。第五，货币供应量对经济增长的影响力长期趋势上是在缓慢上升，同时也要充分考虑国家财政政策的影响。股票市场对货币供应量的影响力也是在持续增加，而对经济增长的影响力与其自身行情有很大关系，随着资本市场改革的逐步推进有利于更多的投资者参与其中，同时也意味着更多的存款和保证金进入了股票市场，股票市场对它们的影响也会越来越大。
[Abstract]:At present, the theoretical and empirical studies on money supply, stock market and economic development are mostly parallel at home and abroad, and there are few articles to analyze the dynamic correlation between them. In recent years, due to the influence of economic reform, various external shocks and policy changes, the economic structure of our country is gradually changing, but the change of the economic structure can not be shown by the previous fixed parameter model. Therefore, this paper will make a systematic analysis of the relationship among money supply, economic development and stock market by using the variable parameter model, the State Space Model. The main contents of the study are as follows: first, this paper will review the relevant theoretical and empirical literature, mainly money supply theory, economic growth theory and empirical research on money supply, economic development and stock market. Second, this paper will use relevant data to construct the economic model between money supply, stock market and economic development, and make an empirical analysis of the relationship between them. This paper will put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, hoping that the conclusions will help the policy-making departments to formulate and implement monetary policy more effectively. It provides an effective reference for establishing and perfecting the stable mechanism of stock market and realizing the rapid and steady growth of our country's economy. The empirical results show that: first, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between stock market and money supply, economic growth and between them, even if the stock market or money supply fluctuates briefly. It will also have an impact on economic growth in the same direction in a short period of time. Second, the stock market can promote the increase of money supply and economic growth. At the same time, economic growth will increase the demand for money supply, on the other hand, changes in money supply will also have an impact on economic growth. Thirdly, in the short term, the impact of stock market on GDP is greater than that of M2 of money supply on GDP, and in the long run, M2 of money supply has greater impact on GDP than on GDP of stock market. Fourth, the stock market has weakened the impact of monetary policy on the real economy. Fifth, the influence of money supply on economic growth is slowly rising over the long term, and the impact of national fiscal policy should be fully considered. The influence of the stock market on the money supply is also increasing, and the influence on the economic growth has much to do with its own market. As the reform of the capital market moves forward, more investors can participate in it. It also means more deposits and deposits enter the stock market, and the stock market will have a growing impact on them.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.1;F822.2;F832.51

【参考文献】