经济转型中的潜在增长率变化与新一轮“开放促改革”的突破口
发布时间：2018-07-16 13:26
【摘要】：经济结构战略性调整是我国加快转变经济发展方式的主攻方向;在经济转型与结构调整加速的当下,中国的经济增长率相对放缓,人们日益关注中国经济增长的内生动力和长期趋势。对中国经济增长趋势的判断,离不开对潜在经济增长率的估计。通过应用HP滤波法、多变量状态空间法等经典方法估计中国潜在经济增长率发现,目前中国经济潜在增长率相对回落,从2008年国际金融危机前的两位数回落到2012年的8%左右;考虑资本冲击因素后,潜在经济增长率的变化幅度扩大,近期下降程度较为明显,而资本冲击因素的影响取决于资本要素市场配置效率,因此,资本要素市场配置效率低是制约中国潜在经济增长率的重要原因。对中国经济长期增长动力的判断离不开如何向开放要动力、向改革要活力,中国新一轮"开放促改革"的突破口在于资本要素配置的市场化和全球化,并有中国(上海)自由贸易试验区作为先行先试基地。资本要素配置的市场化依赖于人民币对内对外价格的市场化,资本要素配置的全球化取决于人民币国际化和资本项目开放。
[Abstract]:The strategic adjustment of economic structure is the main direction of our country to speed up the transformation of its economic development mode. At a time when economic transformation and structural adjustment are accelerating, China's economic growth rate is relatively slowing down. People pay more and more attention to the endogenous power and long-term trend of China's economic growth. The judgment of China's economic growth trend is inseparable from the estimation of the potential economic growth rate. By using the HP filtering method and the multivariate state space method to estimate the potential economic growth rate of China, it is found that the potential economic growth rate of China is relatively low, from the double digits before the international financial crisis in 2008 to about 8% in 2012. After considering the capital shock factor, the change of the potential economic growth rate is enlarged, and the degree of recent decline is obvious. The influence of the capital shock factor depends on the allocation efficiency of the capital factor market. The low allocation efficiency of capital factor market is the important reason of restricting China's potential economic growth rate. The judgment of the long-term growth power of China's economy can not be separated from how to open to the outside world and how to be dynamic to the reform. The breakthrough of China's new round of "opening up and promoting reform" lies in the marketization and globalization of the allocation of capital elements. And China (Shanghai) free trade test area as a pilot test base. The marketization of capital factor allocation depends on the marketization of RMB's internal and external price, and the globalization of capital element allocation depends on the internationalization of RMB and the opening of capital account.
【作者单位】： 华东师范大学中国经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“推进经济结构战略性调整的重点、难点与路径研究”(项目编号:13&ZD016)、国家社科基金重点项目“中国潜在经济增长的源泉与结构变化的估计研究”(项目编号:12AZD095)的阶段性成果 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(项目编号:NCET-13-0207) 上海市“曙光计划”项目(项目编号:12SG27)的资助
【分类号】：F121;F124
本文编号：2126527
[Abstract]:The strategic adjustment of economic structure is the main direction of our country to speed up the transformation of its economic development mode. At a time when economic transformation and structural adjustment are accelerating, China's economic growth rate is relatively slowing down. People pay more and more attention to the endogenous power and long-term trend of China's economic growth. The judgment of China's economic growth trend is inseparable from the estimation of the potential economic growth rate. By using the HP filtering method and the multivariate state space method to estimate the potential economic growth rate of China, it is found that the potential economic growth rate of China is relatively low, from the double digits before the international financial crisis in 2008 to about 8% in 2012. After considering the capital shock factor, the change of the potential economic growth rate is enlarged, and the degree of recent decline is obvious. The influence of the capital shock factor depends on the allocation efficiency of the capital factor market. The low allocation efficiency of capital factor market is the important reason of restricting China's potential economic growth rate. The judgment of the long-term growth power of China's economy can not be separated from how to open to the outside world and how to be dynamic to the reform. The breakthrough of China's new round of "opening up and promoting reform" lies in the marketization and globalization of the allocation of capital elements. And China (Shanghai) free trade test area as a pilot test base. The marketization of capital factor allocation depends on the marketization of RMB's internal and external price, and the globalization of capital element allocation depends on the internationalization of RMB and the opening of capital account.
【作者单位】： 华东师范大学中国经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“推进经济结构战略性调整的重点、难点与路径研究”(项目编号:13&ZD016)、国家社科基金重点项目“中国潜在经济增长的源泉与结构变化的估计研究”(项目编号:12AZD095)的阶段性成果 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(项目编号:NCET-13-0207) 上海市“曙光计划”项目(项目编号:12SG27)的资助
【分类号】：F121;F124
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