辽宁省经济协调发展综合评价与预测
发布时间：2018-07-17 14:42
【摘要】：本文借鉴了国内外相关领域专家、学者的研究,结合辽宁省的经济发展现状,重点对辽宁省区域经济发展的协调性进行了综合评价,并运用了对比及综合分析的方法对辽宁省未来的经济发展及其14个地级以上市之间存在的差异进行了预测。通过本文的研究,可以有助于我们更加清楚地了解辽宁省目前的经济发展状况,并准确把握其未来的发展趋势,从中发现自身存在的一些优势和不足,这对于提升辽宁省的整体综合实力,促进区域持续、健康发展以及构建和谐社会具有一定的理论和现实意义。 本文在实证与规范、静态与动态、定性与定量相结合的基础上,对辽宁省经济发展协调度进行综合评价和预测,具体操作过程如下：首先,构建区域经济协调度评价指标体系,在此基础上运用主成分分析法和聚类分析法进行定量分析,并综合以上2种分析结果得出辽宁省目前的经济发展状况。其次,为了对辽宁省区域经济发展状况做进一步地分析,通过计算辽宁省14市GDP总量和均量并采用绝对差异和相对差异相结合的方法以及国际上通用的基尼系数这3种方法预测其未来6年的经济发展差异,为了确保预测结果的准确性,又采用了特尔菲法进行验证。最后,综合以上定性与定量相结合的分析结果,运用区域经济学、发展经济学、空间统计学、计量经济学等学科的相关知识,为辽宁省今后经济、社会的可持续发展提供一些可行性的建议及措施。
[Abstract]:This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign related domain experts, the scholar's research, unifies the Liaoning Province's economic development present situation, has carried on the comprehensive appraisal to the Liaoning Province regional economic development coordination, The future economic development of Liaoning Province and the differences among 14 cities above the prefectural level are forecasted by means of comparison and comprehensive analysis. The research in this paper can help us to understand the current economic development of Liaoning Province more clearly, and accurately grasp its future development trend, from which we can find some advantages and disadvantages. It is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the overall strength of Liaoning Province, promote regional sustainability, healthy development and the construction of a harmonious society. Based on the combination of positive and normative, static and dynamic, qualitative and quantitative, this paper comprehensively evaluates and predicts the coordination degree of economic development in Liaoning Province. The concrete operation process is as follows: firstly, the evaluation index system of regional economic coordination degree is constructed. On the basis of this, principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to carry out quantitative analysis, and the economic development situation of Liaoning Province was obtained by synthesizing the above two kinds of analysis results. Secondly, in order to further analyze the situation of regional economic development in Liaoning Province, By calculating the gross and average GDP of 14 cities in Liaoning Province, combining the absolute and relative differences and the three methods of Gini coefficient, which are commonly used in the world, to predict the difference of economic development in the next six years. In order to ensure the accuracy of the prediction results, the Delphi method was used to verify the results. Finally, synthesizing the above qualitative and quantitative analysis results, using the relevant knowledge of regional economics, development economics, spatial statistics, econometrics, etc., for the future economy of Liaoning Province, The sustainable development of society provides some feasible suggestions and measures.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127
本文编号：2129965
[Abstract]:This article draws lessons from the domestic and foreign related domain experts, the scholar's research, unifies the Liaoning Province's economic development present situation, has carried on the comprehensive appraisal to the Liaoning Province regional economic development coordination, The future economic development of Liaoning Province and the differences among 14 cities above the prefectural level are forecasted by means of comparison and comprehensive analysis. The research in this paper can help us to understand the current economic development of Liaoning Province more clearly, and accurately grasp its future development trend, from which we can find some advantages and disadvantages. It is of theoretical and practical significance to promote the overall strength of Liaoning Province, promote regional sustainability, healthy development and the construction of a harmonious society. Based on the combination of positive and normative, static and dynamic, qualitative and quantitative, this paper comprehensively evaluates and predicts the coordination degree of economic development in Liaoning Province. The concrete operation process is as follows: firstly, the evaluation index system of regional economic coordination degree is constructed. On the basis of this, principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to carry out quantitative analysis, and the economic development situation of Liaoning Province was obtained by synthesizing the above two kinds of analysis results. Secondly, in order to further analyze the situation of regional economic development in Liaoning Province, By calculating the gross and average GDP of 14 cities in Liaoning Province, combining the absolute and relative differences and the three methods of Gini coefficient, which are commonly used in the world, to predict the difference of economic development in the next six years. In order to ensure the accuracy of the prediction results, the Delphi method was used to verify the results. Finally, synthesizing the above qualitative and quantitative analysis results, using the relevant knowledge of regional economics, development economics, spatial statistics, econometrics, etc., for the future economy of Liaoning Province, The sustainable development of society provides some feasible suggestions and measures.
【学位授予单位】：福建师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127
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