沪港贸易结构与产业结构关系比较研究

发布时间：2018-07-28 08:19

【摘要】：本文从上海、香港的产业结构和贸易结构现状出发,选用相关指标,比较两地产业结构和贸易结构的发展特征。进一步的,通过建立数学模型,研究产业结构与贸易结构的相互关系。首先,本文第二、三章分别就两个地方的贸易结构和产业结构的发展现状进行了比较。研究结果表明：第一、上海、香港的贸易商品结构类似,但是贸易方式结构有较大差异。第二,产业结构比较结果显示：(1)香港的产业高度化程度优于上海,主要表现在香港的第三产业比重高于上海；(2)霍夫曼工业化指数计算结果表明,上海已经处于工业化程度的第四阶段,而香港还处于第二阶段。第三、由上述结果推断,上海为“腹地型”贸易中心城市,香港为“转口型”贸易中心城市。然后,本文选用钱纳里(1975)提出的数学模型,对该模型进行了必要的修正,以对上海、香港产业结构与贸易结构互动关系予以实证分析。结果表明,上海、香港的要素禀赋是有所区别的,上海的要素禀赋主要集中于劳动力资源和工业化体系,香港的要素禀赋则在于其优越的地理位置。但是,这些结论无法系统地反应产业结构与贸易结构的关系,因而需要进一步从整体上对两个结构综合效应的互动关系进行研究。本文第五章构建了上海、香港产业结构和贸易结构的结构优化指数体系。其中,产业结构优化指数选择结构高度化指数和结构协调度指数为目标指数；贸易结构优化指数则包括了商品结构、方式结构、区域结构和服务贸易比重四个纬度的指标。然后,使用灰靶理论计算出贸易结构优化指数的靶心度。最后,运用Johansen协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验对两个结构综合指数的变化关系进行检验,进而比较研究两地产业结构与贸易结构综合效应。结果表明,出口导向型战略引起上海产业结构与贸易结构的关系调整,而香港则通过调整产业结构,正在从“去工业化”进程中走出来。这个结论很好的验证了之前通过各个方面数据所做出的推测。第六章中,以上述研究成果为基础,构建了产业结构与贸易结构关系的调整模型,并总结了沪港两地在产业结构与贸易机构调整过程中存在的四个不同之处：(1)先导政策不同；(2)主导性贸易方式不同；(3)生产要素的重新配置对两地的出口贸易结构的影响途径不同；(4)生产要素配置对产业结构调整的响应路径不同。进而通过考察香港在处理产业结构与贸易结构关系中的经验与教训,并结合之间的研究成果,提出上海优化产业结构与贸易结构关系的四点建议：(1)以产业结构优化为核心目标,防止贸易结构对产业结构的反制；(2)提高生产要素配置对产业结构调整的响应能力；(3)合理配置贸易方式结构,推进三次产业协调发展；(4)培育潜在要素禀赋,预防结构失衡。
[Abstract]:Based on the present situation of industrial structure and trade structure in Shanghai and Hong Kong, this paper compares the development characteristics of industrial structure and trade structure between Shanghai and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure is studied by establishing mathematical model. Firstly, the second and third chapters compare the present situation of trade structure and industrial structure of the two places. The results show that: first, the structure of trade commodities in Shanghai and Hong Kong is similar, but the structure of trade mode is quite different. Second, the results of industrial structure comparison show that: (1) the degree of industrial upgrading in Hong Kong is higher than that in Shanghai, mainly in the proportion of tertiary industry in Hong Kong is higher than that in Shanghai; (2) the results of Hoffman industrialization Index calculation show that Shanghai is in the fourth stage of industrialization, while Hong Kong is in the second stage. Thirdly, it is inferred from the above results that Shanghai is a "hinterland" trade center city and Hong Kong is a "entrepot" trade center city. Then, this paper selects the mathematical model proposed by Chennari (1975), and makes a necessary revision to the model to make an empirical analysis of the interaction between industrial structure and trade structure in Shanghai and Hong Kong. The results show that the factor endowments of Shanghai and Hong Kong are different, that of Shanghai is mainly concentrated on labor resources and industrialization system, and that of Hong Kong lies in its superior geographical position. However, these conclusions can not systematically reflect the relationship between the industrial structure and the trade structure, so it is necessary to further study the interaction between the two structures as a whole. The fifth chapter constructs the index system of industrial structure and trade structure of Shanghai and Hong Kong. Among them, the industrial structure optimization index selects the structural high-grade index and the structural coordination index as the target index, and the trade structure optimization index includes the index of the commodity structure, the mode structure, the regional structure and the proportion of service trade. Then, the target center of trade structure optimization index is calculated by grey target theory. Finally, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to test the relationship between the two structural composite indices, and then compare the industrial structure and trade structure of the two places. The results show that the export-oriented strategy leads to the adjustment of the relationship between the industrial structure and the trade structure of Shanghai, while Hong Kong is emerging from the process of "deindustrialization" through the adjustment of the industrial structure. This conclusion is very good to verify the previous data from various aspects of the speculation. In the sixth chapter, based on the above research results, we construct the adjustment model of the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure, and summarize the four differences between Shanghai and Hong Kong in the process of industrial structure and trade organization adjustment: (1) different guiding policies; (2) the dominant trade mode is different; (3) the reconfiguration of production factors has different influence on the export trade structure of both places; (4) the response path of production factor allocation to industrial structure adjustment is different. Then, by examining the experience and lessons of Hong Kong in dealing with the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure, and combining the research results between them, Four suggestions are put forward to optimize the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure in Shanghai: (1) taking industrial structure optimization as the core goal to prevent the trade structure from counteracting the industrial structure; (2) improving the response ability of production factor allocation to the adjustment of industrial structure; (3) reasonable allocation of trade mode structure, promotion of coordinated development of three industries, (4) cultivation of potential factor endowment and prevention of structural imbalance.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F727;F127;F224

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