上海市经济增长差异及趋同的实证分析

发布时间：2018-08-23 10:28

【摘要】：上海市己进入建设“四个中心”和社会主义现代化国际大都市的关键时期,在这过程中,上海市经济又好又快发展则显得至关重要。虽然自浦东开发开放以来,上海市的经济取得令人瞩目的成就,但也面临着资源环境约束、城乡区域发展协调性有待增强、收入分配差距较大等问题。因此,为了上海市经济又好又快发展,对上海市区域经济增长差异及趋同研究则是非常具有理论价值与现实指导意义。因此,本文以上海市为研究区域。首先,对上海市区域经济增长的现状和上海市区域经济发展水平差异的特征进行分析,并对上海市区域经济增长进行趋同检验；其次,利用修正后的Cobb-Douglas生产函数、C-D(Cobb-Douglas)生产函数的变化模型、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法对上海市区域经济增长的影响因素进行计量检验,以期对上海市区域经济增长的内在逻辑和动力机制有更深的认识；最后,总结前文主要研究结果,得出相应的政策启示,并对未来的研究做进一步展望。本文从以下几部分展开研究： (1)研究起点。阐述本研究的现实背景和理论意义,并通过文献综述形式对国内外研究现状进行回顾和评述,进而确定本文的基本研究思路、方法和可能创新点。 (2)理论基础。对新古典经济增长理论、新增长理论、增长极理论和经济增长趋同理论进行应用性探讨,为本文奠定坚实的理论基础。 (3)实证分析。主要从上海市经济增长的现状、上海市区域经济发展水平差异和上海市区域经济增长趋同三个维度,研究浦东开发开放以来上海市区域经济增长的特点、区域经济增长的协调性以及发展趋势(区域经济发展水平差异是在扩大还是缩小,在长期中,区域经济发展水平是否存在趋同),并分析哪些因素是影响上海市区域经济增长的关键因素。 (4)动力机制研究。基于实证分析结果,从劳动、物质资本、人力资本、产业结构以及对外开放的变化出发,对上海市区域经济增长的动力机制进行计量分析,并研究技术进步、资本投入和劳动投入增长对上海市区域经济增长的贡献率,进而对上海市经济增长类型进行判断。 (5)结论与展望。总结本研究的主要结论,在此基础上,为促进上海市区域经济协调、共同发展,给出相应的对策建议,并展望后续的研究方向。文章的主要结论有： (1)上海市的经济实力不断增强。上海市郊区的生产总值占上海市生产总值的比重在不断上升,中心城区的生产总值占上海市生产总值的比重相对下降。上海市三次产业结构不断优化。上海市的对外开放程度在不断加深。对外贸易规模不断变大,进出口产品主要以机电产品与高新技术产品为主,显示出对外贸易的附加值较高。外商直接投资规模增长显著,并主要集中在第三产业和独资经营方面。上海市的跨国公司的地区总部、投资性公司和外资研发中心明显增多,总部经济、技术创新、产业集群更加显著。 (2)上海市17个区县经济发展水平的绝对差异在扩大,而其相对差异呈下降趋势。利用Theil系数和加权变异系数等方法研究发现,上海市17个区县经济发展水平的总体差异在缩小。上海市17个区县总体上存在δ-趋同、绝对β-趋同和条件β-趋同,有先趋异后趋同的特点。上海市中心城区不存在俱乐部趋同现象。上海市郊区存在俱乐部趋同现象且其趋同速度为每年1.82%。 (3)技术进步对上海市区域经济增长的贡献率最高,其次是资本对上海市区域经济增长的贡献率,劳动对上海市区域经济增长的贡献率相对偏低。上海市区域经济增长类型是集约型增长方式。劳动、物质资本、人力资本、产业结构和对外开放度是影响上海市经济增长的五大主要因子,另外,上海市的生产总值(GDP)与劳动、物质资本、人力资本、产业结构和对外开放度之间是具有长期的均衡关系。Granger因果关系检验显示,经济增长会促进物质资本的积累；对外开放既可以促进经济的增长,又可以促进物质资本的积累；劳动可以促进人力资本的进步。
[Abstract]:Shanghai has entered the critical period of building the "four centers" and the socialist modern international metropolis. In this process, the sound and rapid development of Shanghai's economy is of vital importance. Therefore, in order to develop Shanghai's economy well and rapidly, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the regional economic growth differences and convergence in Shanghai.
Therefore, this paper takes Shanghai as the research area. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of regional economic growth in Shanghai and the characteristics of regional economic development level differences in Shanghai, and tests the convergence of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Secondly, it uses the modified Cobb-Douglas production function and the C-D (Cobb-Douglas) production function change model. VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test the influencing factors of regional economic growth in Shanghai in order to have a deeper understanding of the internal logic and dynamic mechanism of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Finally, the main results of the previous study are summarized, and the corresponding policy implications are drawn, and future research is carried out. One step ahead.
The following parts are studied in this paper.
(1) The starting point of the study. The realistic background and theoretical significance of this study are expounded. The research status at home and abroad is reviewed and commented through literature review, and then the basic research ideas, methods and possible innovations are determined.
(2) Theoretical basis. The application of neoclassical economic growth theory, new growth theory, growth pole theory and economic growth convergence theory will lay a solid theoretical foundation for this paper.
(3) Empirical analysis. This paper mainly studies the characteristics of Shanghai regional economic growth, the coordination of regional economic growth and the development trend (the difference of regional economic development level is expanding) since the development and opening up of Pudong from three dimensions: the present situation of Shanghai's economic growth, the difference of regional economic development level and the convergence of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Large or small, in the long run, whether there is convergence in the level of regional economic development, and analyze which factors are the key factors affecting the growth of regional economy in Shanghai.
(4) Research on the dynamic mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the dynamic mechanism of regional economic growth in Shanghai from the perspective of labor, material capital, human capital, industrial structure and the changes of opening to the outside world, and studies the contribution rate of technological progress, capital input and labor input growth to the regional economic growth in Shanghai, and then on. The type of economic growth in Shanghai is judged.
(5) Conclusion and outlook. Summarize the main conclusions of this study, on this basis, in order to promote regional economic coordination and common development in Shanghai, give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, and look forward to the follow-up research direction.
The main conclusions of the article are as follows:
(1) Shanghai's economic strength has been continuously strengthened. The ratio of the total production value of the suburbs of Shanghai to the gross domestic product of Shanghai has been rising. The ratio of the total production value of the central urban area to the gross domestic product of Shanghai has declined relatively. The three industrial structures of Shanghai have been optimized continuously. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased significantly, mainly in the tertiary industry and sole proprietorship. Economic, technological innovation and industrial clusters are more significant.
(2) The absolute difference of the economic development level of 17 districts and counties in Shanghai is expanding, while the relative difference is decreasing. The overall difference of the economic development level of 17 districts and counties in Shanghai is narrowing by using Theil coefficient and weighted variation coefficient. There are delta-convergence, absolute beta-convergence and conditional beta-convergence in 17 districts and counties in Shanghai. There is no club convergence in the downtown area of Shanghai. Club convergence exists in the suburbs of Shanghai and the convergence rate is 1.82% per year.
(3) The contribution rate of technological progress to Shanghai's regional economic growth is the highest, followed by the contribution rate of capital to Shanghai's regional economic growth, and the contribution rate of labor to Shanghai's regional economic growth is relatively low. In addition, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and labor, material capital, human capital, industrial structure and openness. Granger causality test shows that economic growth will promote the accumulation of material capital; opening to the outside world can promote the accumulation of material capital. Economic growth can also promote the accumulation of material capital, and labor can promote the progress of human capital.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127

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