地铁灾害链风险评估研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 10:25

本文选题：地铁　切入点：灾害链　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来城市轨道交通发展不断加速,在现代城市公共交通中扮演着越来越重要的角色,成为人们出行方式的首选的同时,地铁灾害事故却时有发生,使人们越来越关注其运营安全问题。地铁站内一旦灾害,因地铁环境的相对封闭性,灾害事件往往会呈链式连锁反应不断演变,从而造成更大的损失,因此对地铁灾害链进行风险研究具有重要意义。本文在链式风险评价以及复杂网络的相关理论的基础上,对地铁灾害链风险评估进行研究。首先,本文通过对事故链、风险链以及已有的灾害链风险评估模型的优缺点进行分析,并结合地铁系统的致灾影响因素进行分析,构造相应的影响因子体系的基础上提出相应的风险评估模型,定量的对地铁灾害链进行风险评价,最终确定以致灾率、灾害事件节点损失以及边的脆弱性作为该评价模型的指标,其中边的脆弱性主要运用复杂网络相关性质进行研究。然后进行实例分析,当地铁系统有10个灾害事件相互影响而构成多条灾害链,运用风险评估模型进行分析,分别求出每条灾害链相应的风险值。然后,基于复杂网络的拓扑结构性质,对地铁灾害链网络"边的脆弱性"进行详细的研究。通过借鉴有关网络脆弱性的研究,结合地铁灾害链中边的特性,本文选取边的介数,平均路径长度以及连通度作为边的脆弱性的评价指标,并得出边的脆弱性的算法。最后以1987年英国伦敦国王十字地铁站的重大火灾事故为例,通过分析构建其地铁灾害链网络图,并验证了该算法的有效性,为相关部门、消防人员在地铁发生灾害事故时采取正确的救援措施及断链减灾工作提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the development of urban rail transit has been accelerating, which plays a more and more important role in modern urban public transport, and becomes the first choice for people to travel, but subway disasters and accidents occur from time to time.Make people pay more and more attention to its operation safety problem.Once a disaster occurs in a subway station, because of the relative closure of the subway environment, the disaster events will often evolve with chain chain reaction, resulting in greater losses. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the risk of the subway disaster chain.On the basis of chain risk assessment and related theories of complex network, this paper studies the risk assessment of subway disaster chain.First of all, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of accident chain, risk chain and existing disaster chain risk assessment model, and combined with the subway system disaster impact factors to analyze.On the basis of constructing the corresponding influence factor system, the corresponding risk assessment model is put forward, and the risk evaluation of the subway disaster chain is carried out quantitatively, and finally the disaster rate is determined.Disaster event node loss and edge vulnerability are used as indicators of the evaluation model, in which the edge vulnerability is mainly studied by using the related properties of complex networks.Then a case study is carried out. When there are 10 disaster events affecting each other and forming multiple disaster chains, the risk assessment model is used to analyze, and the corresponding risk values of each disaster chain are calculated respectively.Then, based on the topological properties of the complex network, the "edge vulnerability" of the subway disaster chain network is studied in detail.Based on the study of network vulnerability and the characteristics of the edge in the subway disaster chain, this paper selects the mediums of the edges, the average path length and the connectivity as the evaluation indexes of the edge vulnerability, and obtains the algorithm of the edge vulnerability.Finally, taking the major fire accident of King's Cross Station in London in 1987 as an example, through analyzing and constructing its subway disaster chain network diagram, and verifying the effectiveness of the algorithm, the relevant departments,Firefighters take correct rescue measures and provide decision support for disaster reduction in subway.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U231.96;O157.5

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