基于门限回归模型的上海市经济与金融发展协调性研究

发布时间：2018-04-06 06:31

本文选题：经济增长　切入点：金融发展　出处：《上海师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济与金融发展对一座城市乃至一个国家的影响是不言而喻的,然而他们之间的关系如何才能协调发展是经济学家们一直探寻的经济主题之一。本文将以上海市为例,研究上海市金融中心的建设是否能配合经济的增长,经济的发展又需要多大规模的金融市场,探讨二者之间的协调关系。首先,上海市的经济与金融发展具有全国经济与金融发展的共同特性,并且又有其独特的一面,上海自上世纪九十年代以来已得到党中央和国务院大力支持建立国际金融中心,因此需要对其金融的特殊地位加以分析;其次,通过对大量国内外相关文献资料的整理分析及归纳总结,本文以1991-2015年之间上海市经济与金融发展的相关数据为研究对象,选取上海市人均生产总值(RGDP)和全社会固定资产投资总额()为经济增长指标,以金融相关率(FIR)、资本市场发展指标(CAP)、保险资本市场发展指标(INGDP)和金融深化指标(DEPTH)为金融发展指标,利用Eviews统计软件对其进行模型建立之前的各种检验,如平稳性检验,外生性检验等。结果显示,原始的经济与金融发展数据并不是平稳的,故对原始数据进行取对数并进行一阶差分,处理后的数据平稳并且各金融发展变量与经济增长之间存在外生性,即协整关系,从而后续的建模工作才得以继续展开。此外,在AK模型的基础上,将金融发展变量作为门限发展变量分别引入AK模型,利用R统计软件进行门限效应检验,从而建立门限回归模型。最后得出结论:上海市的经济增长与金融发展之间存在明显的门限效应,即二者之间是非线性关系的;同时,在一定发展水平区间里,经济增长与金融发展之间是相互促进,相辅相成的,但是在某些金融发展区间里,二者又是存在相互抑制作用的,即金融相关率(FIR)和保险资本市场发展指标(INGDP)在金融发展水平较低的情况下,对经济增长是抑制的,金融深化指标(DEPTH)在其发展水平较高的区间里,对经济增长也是抑制的;在其他的金融发展区间里,二者是相互促进的关系,即,金融发展在一定程度上促进经济增长,同时经济的增长在一定阶段也有助于金融业的增速发展。因此,建设国际金融中心对上海市都有着及其重要的意义。本文最后根据所建立的门限回归模型,针对上海市的经济与金融发展的实际情况,提出了一些针对性的参考建议:规范发展证券市场,进一步强化金融体系;改善保险业的发展,以便通过经济补偿、融资、社会管理等功能进一步协调经济与金融共同发展;改善银行的信贷配给体系,缓解“金融压制”现象,均衡分配银行的信贷,促进中小型企业的发展;加强金融人才培养机制,以丰富金融人才,加强对国外的金融市场充分了解,同时对国内的金融业内部运营操作并充分掌握透彻;加快人民币国际化进程,进一步稳固上海市的金融中心的地位。
[Abstract]:The impact of economic and financial development on a city or even a country is self-evident. However, how to coordinate the development of their relationship is one of the economic themes that economists have been exploring.This paper will take Shanghai as an example to study whether the construction of Shanghai financial center can keep pace with the economic growth, and how much large-scale financial market is needed for the economic development, and to discuss the harmonious relationship between the two.First of all, Shanghai's economic and financial development has the common characteristics of national economic and financial development, and it has its unique side. Since the 1990s, Shanghai has received strong support from the CPC Central Committee and the State Council for the establishment of an international financial center.Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the special status of Shanghai's finance. Secondly, through the analysis and summary of a large number of domestic and foreign related literature, this paper takes the relevant data of Shanghai's economic and financial development from 1991 to 2015 as the research object.Shanghai per capita GDP (RGDP) and the total fixed asset investment of the whole society are selected as economic growth indicators. The financial correlation rate, capital market development index, insurance capital market development index and financial deepening index are taken as financial development indicators.Eviews statistical software is used to test the model, such as stationary test, exophytic test and so on.The results show that the original economic and financial development data are not stable, so the logarithm of the original data is taken and the first order difference is carried out. The processed data are stable and the financial development variables are exogenous to the economic growth.That is, cointegration, so that the subsequent modeling work can continue.In addition, based on the AK model, the financial development variable is introduced into the AK model as threshold development variable, and the threshold effect is tested by R statistical software, and the threshold regression model is established.Finally, it is concluded that there is obvious threshold effect between economic growth and financial development in Shanghai, that is, the relationship between them is nonlinear, and at the same time, in a certain level of development, economic growth and financial development promote each other.They complement each other, but in some financial development zones, there are mutual restraints between the two, that is, the financial correlation rate (FIR) and the insurance capital market development index (INGDPV) are inhibiting economic growth when the level of financial development is relatively low.The financial deepening index DEPTH is also a constraint to economic growth in its higher level of development; in other financial development zones, the two are mutually reinforcing relations, that is, financial development promotes economic growth to a certain extent.At the same time, the economic growth in a certain stage is also conducive to the growth of the financial industry.Therefore, the construction of an international financial center is of great significance to Shanghai.Finally, according to the established threshold regression model and the actual situation of Shanghai's economic and financial development, this paper puts forward some specific suggestions: standardize the development of securities market, further strengthen the financial system;To improve the development of the insurance industry so as to further coordinate the common development of economy and finance through the functions of economic compensation, financing and social management, improve the credit rationing system of banks, ease the phenomenon of "financial repression", and distribute the credit of banks in a balanced manner.To promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, to strengthen the financial talent training mechanism, to enrich financial talents, to strengthen the full understanding of foreign financial markets, at the same time to have a thorough understanding of the internal operation of the domestic financial industry;Speed up the internationalization of the RMB and further strengthen the status of Shanghai's financial center.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F832.7;F224

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