汽车共享出行模式选择的演化博弈研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 03:05

  本文选题：汽车共享 + 出行模式　； 参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速发展和城市化进程的不断推进,出行者的出行需求不断增加并趋于多样化。作为一种新兴出行模式,汽车共享的推行有助于缓解出行供需矛盾、减少私家车的保有量、提高车辆的使用效率和降低出行者的出行成本。在汽车共享出行模式的研究方面,已有的研究大多是针对出行者对汽车共享出行模式的使用意愿的实证研究,主要从出行者的社会经济属性、家庭属性、出行属性和心理感知等内部因素的视角,研究其对汽车共享出行模式选择行为的影响。本文借助演化博弈理论,研究政府和汽车共享运营商等外部因素影响下,出行者汽车共享出行模式选择行为的演化机理。论文首先分析了不同出行模式的特征及出行者出行模式选择行为的影响因素,着重剖析了汽车共享出行模式选择行为的影响因素,并解释了将政府政策和运营规模作为外部影响因素进行研究的重要性。考虑到政府的激励政策会提高汽车共享出行模式对出行者的吸引力,论文随后以出行者和政府作为博弈对象,构建了出行者与政府策略选择的演化博弈模型,通过算例分析了政府给予汽车共享出行者的补贴、出行者因缺少政策支持时面临的时间损失、政府制定政策获得的政策收益、政策制定成本等参数变化对最终演化结果的影响。最后考虑了汽车共享运营商对出行者的汽车共享出行模式选择的影响。运营规模的大小决定了汽车共享运营商的车辆配置和车辆调度策略,从而决定了运营商的运营成本,而运营规模的不同对出行者的汽车共享出行模式选择的影响也不同。基于此,本文构建了出行者和汽车共享运营商的演化博弈模型,研究运营规模对出行者的汽车共享出行模式选择的影响。通过算例分析了汽车共享运营商采取小规模运营时出行者面临的时间损失、汽车共享运营商采取大规模运营增加的收益和增加的成本等参数变化对最终演化结果的影响。论文的研究对政府和汽车共享运营商制定相关策略具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and the development of urbanization, the travel demand of travelers is increasing and becoming diversified.As a new travel mode, the implementation of car sharing helps to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, reduce the number of private cars, improve the efficiency of vehicle use and reduce the travel costs of travelers.In the research of car sharing travel mode, most of the existing research is aimed at the passenger's willingness to use the car share travel mode, mainly from the travelers' social and economic attributes, family attributes,From the perspective of internal factors, such as travel attributes and psychological perception, this paper studies the influence of travel attributes on the choice of shared travel modes.With the help of evolutionary game theory, this paper studies the evolution mechanism of the choice behavior of car-sharing travel mode under the influence of external factors such as government and car-sharing operator.Firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of different travel modes and the influencing factors of travelers' travel mode choice behavior, and focuses on the factors that affect the choice behavior of automobile shared trip mode.It also explains the importance of taking government policy and operation scale as external factors.Considering that the incentive policy of the government will enhance the attraction of the car-sharing travel mode to the travelers, the paper takes the traveler and the government as the game objects, and constructs the evolutionary game model of the choice of the traveler and the government strategy.An example is given to analyze the effect of the government subsidy to the automobile sharing traveler, the time loss faced by the traveller due to the lack of policy support, the policy income obtained by the government policy formulation, the policy formulation cost, and other parameter changes on the final evolution results.Finally, the influence of car-sharing operators on the choice of car-sharing travel modes for travelers is considered.The size of the operation scale determines the vehicle configuration and vehicle scheduling strategy of the vehicle sharing operator, thus determines the operation cost of the operator, and the different operation scale has different influence on the choice of the vehicle sharing travel mode.Based on this, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model between traveler and car-sharing operator to study the influence of operation scale on the choice of car-sharing travel mode.An example is given to analyze the time loss faced by the car-sharing operators when they take small scale operation, and the effect of the changes of the parameters such as the increase of the profit and the cost of the large-scale operation on the final evolution result.The research of this paper has certain reference value to the government and the automobile share operator to formulate the related strategy.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224.32;F721
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本文编号：1752214