基于向后逐步回归模型的我国农机需求特征及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 14:51

【摘要】：以2004-2014年数据为样本,以农机总动力为因变量,以农机购置补贴、农机价格、农机作业服务价格、农户人均纯收入、农产品价格、农业劳动力数量和农作物播种总面积为自变量构建了我国农机需求影响因素的回归方程,向后逐步回归结果表明:(1)除农作物播种总面积、农机作业服务价格、农产品价格之外,其余变量对农机总动力的影响均统计上显著;(2)农机购置补贴、农机价格指数、农户人均纯收入及农业劳动力四个变量对农机需求的弹性系数分别为0.027、-0.004、0.457、0.474。最后根据研究结果提出加大与落实农机购置补贴、规范农机价格、培育新型经营主体、加速土地规范流转等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Taking the data of 2004-2014 as a sample, taking the total power of agricultural machinery as dependent variable, the purchase subsidy of agricultural machinery, the price of agricultural machinery service, the per capita net income of farmers, the price of agricultural products, The regression equation of influencing factors of agricultural machinery demand in China was established by using the quantity of agricultural labor and the total planting area of crops as independent variables. The results showed that: (1) in addition to the total area of crop seeding, the service price of agricultural machinery operation, and the price of agricultural products, the regression equation of factors affecting agricultural machinery demand in China was established. The influence of the other variables on the total power of agricultural machinery is statistically significant. (2) the elasticity coefficient of the four variables of purchasing subsidy, price index, per capita net income of farmers and agricultural labor force on the demand for agricultural machinery are 0.027 ~ 0.004 ~ 0.457 ~ 0.474, respectively. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward, such as increasing and implementing the purchase subsidy of agricultural machinery, standardizing the price of agricultural machinery, cultivating new management subjects and speeding up the circulation of land norms.
【作者单位】：吉林大学生物与农业工程学院;吉林工程技术师范学院工商管理学院;
【基金】：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20130061110043)
【分类号】：O212.1

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