基于信念变化的蜈蚣博弈悖论解悖探析

发布时间：2018-02-10 11:00

本文关键词： 逆推归纳法蜈蚣博弈悖论信念　出处：《深圳大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：逆推归纳法是研究完美信息动态博弈的常用方法,通过完全归纳得到必然结论,但用于分析蜈蚣博弈时理论预测与人们的实际博弈行为发生偏离,导致悖论。蜈蚣博弈的结构精致而复杂,局中人对博弈收益情况的权衡以及局中人试图在非合作的博弈机制中进行合作的主观倾向,影响了局中人决策时的信念变化。现实中的主体并不具有绝对理性,伴随信念变化的主观感受是主体相信自己的决策合理的决定性因素。一种新的解悖思路是考察局中人信念变化并将主观感受计入收益,进而分析和预测博弈的结果。
[Abstract]:Inverse induction is a common method to study the dynamic game of perfect information. The conclusion is obtained through complete induction, but it is used to analyze the theoretical prediction of centipede game and the deviation between the theoretical prediction and the actual game behavior of people. Leading to paradox. The structure of centipede game is delicate and complex, the players' tradeoff of the game income and the subjective tendency of the players trying to cooperate in the non-cooperative game mechanism, It affects the change of belief in the decision-making of the people in the bureau. The subject in reality does not have absolute rationality. The subjective feeling accompanied by the change of belief is the decisive factor for the subject to believe that his decision is reasonable. A new way of solving the paradox is to investigate the change of belief in the bureau and count the subjective feeling into the income, and then analyze and predict the result of the game.
【作者单位】：北京理工大学;中国人民大学;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“大数据视域下科学方法创新研究”(15BZX040)
【分类号】：B812.3

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