基于多层线性模型的已婚女性生育意愿影响因素探究

发布时间：2018-01-27 02:51

本文关键词： 已婚女性生育意愿多层线性模型　出处：《沈阳师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国是一个人口大国,人口增长问题从建国以来,就一直是我国关注的焦点问题。面临持续低下的生育率,我国采取了一些政策做出调整,包括最近出台的“二孩政策”,可是效果仍然没有达到专家们的预期。所以,找出影响已婚女性生育意愿的关键因素,对于政府出台促进二孩政策的措施有着重要的参考意义。生育意愿会受到文化、经济及政治等多方面影响,它一般包括生育子女性别、子女数量、生育时间及养育方式四个方面。本研究从城市人均GDP水平、家族文化等社会因素和夫妻支持、依恋风格、性别角色认同等个体因素两个层面探索影响已婚女性生育意愿的因素。本研究总共收集了来自30个城市、来自450名已婚女性的有效问卷,采用多层线性分析模型,排除包括已婚女性的年龄、婚龄、居住地、学历、单位类型等混杂因素的作用,来探索已婚女性的生育意愿的影响因素。得出研究结论:(1)已婚女性的生育意愿在年龄、学历、同长辈居住的数量上存在显著性差异,以18-25岁已婚女性为对照组,年龄段越大的已婚女性,生育意愿水平与年龄呈负相关,其中年龄段在36-40与对照组相比具有负向预测作用;以学历为初中及以下为对照组,随着学历的增长,已婚女性的生育意愿水平反而呈负向增长;随着一起居住的长辈数量的增多,已婚女性在生育意愿水平上呈增长趋势。女性生育意愿在婚龄、居住地、年收入、单位类型、长辈生活是否能自理上不具有显著性差异。(2)在个体层面的影响因素上,夫妻支持对已婚女性生育意愿有显著正向预测作用,表明夫妻支持水平越高,已婚女性生育意愿就越强烈。性别角色认同中已婚女性的男性特质认同对已婚女性生育意愿有显著正向预测作用,已婚女性的女性特质认同也对已婚女性生育意愿有显著正向预测作用,说明无论已婚女性的男性特质还是女性特质,水平越高,她们的生育意愿水平也越高;依恋风格对已婚女性生育意愿无显著预测作用;。(3)在城市层面的影响因素上,城市人均GDP水平对已婚女性生育意愿有显著负向预测作用,即城市人均GDP越高,已婚女性生育意愿水平越低;家族文化中华南区域的家族文化对已婚女性生育意愿有显著正向预测作用,其它区域无显著预测作用。
[Abstract]:China is a populous country, population growth has been the focus of our attention since the founding of the people's Republic of China. In the face of the persistent low fertility rate, China has adopted some policies to make adjustments. Including the recent "two-child policy," but the results are still not up to experts' expectations. So, identify the key factors that affect married women's willingness to have children. It has important reference significance for the government to introduce the measures to promote the two-child policy. The fertility will be influenced by culture, economy and politics, which generally includes the sex of the children and the number of children. In this study, the average GDP level, family culture and other social factors and marital support, attachment style were analyzed. Gender role identity and other individual factors to explore the impact of married women reproductive willingness factors. This study collected a total of 30 cities from 450 married women valid questionnaire. A multilevel linear analysis model was used to exclude the effects of mixed factors, including age, marriage age, residence, educational background and unit type of married women. To explore the influence factors of married women's fertility intention. The conclusion of the study is: 1) married women have significant differences in age, educational background and the number of elders living. The married women aged 18-25 years were taken as the control group. The older the married women were, the negative correlation was found between the fertility intention level and the age, in which the age group in 36-40 had a negative predictive effect compared with the control group. With the educational background as the junior middle school and below as the control group, with the increase of educational background, married women's fertility willingness level increased negatively; With the increase in the number of elders living together, married women have an increasing trend in the level of fertility willingness. Women's reproductive willingness in marriage age, place of residence, annual income, unit type. On the individual level, marital support has a significant positive predictive effect on married women's fertility willingness, indicating that the higher the level of support between husband and wife, the higher the level of marital support. The male trait identity of married women in gender role identity has a significant positive predictive effect on married women's fertility intention. The female trait identity of married women also has a significant positive predictive effect on married women's fertility intention, indicating that the higher the level of married women's male trait and female trait, the higher their fertility willingness level. Attachment style had no significant predictive effect on the fertility intention of married women. (3) on the urban level, the average GDP level in cities has a significantly negative predictive effect on married women's fertility willingness, that is, the higher the per capita GDP in cities, the lower the level of married women's fertility willingness; The family culture in the south of China has a significant positive predictive effect on the fertility intention of married women, but no significant predictive effect in other regions.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：B848

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