个体自信度对双人决策的影响

发布时间：2018-01-31 11:10

本文关键词： 双人决策动态交互自信度自信度分享虚拟决策　出处：《心理学报》2016年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：群体决策是重要的社会现象,个体自信度在群体决策中发挥了重要作用。本文开展了不同难度和信息交流方式下的双人决策实验,通过分析自信度和个体决策以及决策调整行为的关系,研究了个体自信度的交流对双人决策的影响。实验结果表明,个体的自信度与选择的正确率高度正相关;双人决策过程是个体根据对方的自信度和选择来不断调整自己的选择最终达成一致的过程,并通过交互过程提高双人决策的正确率;实验中双人决策的质量明显优于"自信度分享模型"和"更自信者主导决策模型"的预期结果,表明群体决策不是通过分享自信度进行的贝叶斯优化整合过程,也不是由更自信的个体完全主导的过程。
[Abstract]:Group decision making is an important social phenomenon, and individual confidence plays an important role in group decision-making. By analyzing the relationship between confidence degree, individual decision making and decision adjustment behavior, the influence of individual confidence degree communication on double decision making is studied. The experimental results show that the confidence degree of individual is highly positively correlated with the correct rate of choice. The process of double decision is that the individual adjusts his or her choice according to the confidence and choice of the other party, and improves the correct rate of the double decision through the interactive process. In the experiment, the quality of double decision is better than the expected results of "confidence sharing model" and "more confident decision model", which indicates that group decision making is not a Bayesian optimization integration process by sharing confidence degree. Nor is it a process completely dominated by more confident individuals.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学系统科学学院;北京师范大学认知神经科学与学习国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“风险感知的神经计算机制研究”(31271169) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助
【分类号】：B848
【正文快照】： 1引言群体决策是为充分发挥集体的智慧,由多人共同参与决策分析并制定决策的动态过程。它普遍存在于人类社会中,小至一家人选择某个餐厅吃饭,大至制定国家政策。作为人类决策的重要方式,群体决策长期都是研究的热点(李纾,梁竹苑,孙彦,2012;Simon et al.,1987),受到了心理学(

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