洪水风险下政府信任与风险感知：信息加工方式的中介作用

发布时间：2018-07-21 13:27

【摘要】：洪水威胁仍然是当今社会面临的重要灾难之一。在洪水问题的预防与治理中,民众的风险感知是重要的决定因素之一。了解影响民众风险感知的相关因素及其发生机制,既对现实中的社会治理有着重要的价值,又能够帮助我们完善风险感知研究理论。以往一些学者提出,信任能够显著降低民众的风险感知,然而,也有人认为,信任并不能降低风险感知。信任究竟能否降低风险感知呢?如果信任能够降低风险感知,那么这种作用是通过什么样的机制呢?根据风险的精细加工可能性模型,信任能够影响到个体加工信息的方式,使个体或采用启发加工,或采用系统加工,进而产生不同的风险感知。为了检验这一假设模型,本研究通过三个小研究,同时采用相关法和实验法,依次检验了中国洪水风险中,信任是否影响风险感知以及怎样影响到风险感知的问题。研究1为了探讨信任究竟是否与风险感知存在重要关联,采用相关法,以330名社会成人为研究对象,探讨在中国的洪水风险问题中,民众对政府的信任是否与他们的风险感知有负相关。结果发现:随着民众对政府的信任程度的升高,他们的风险感知越来越低。研究2为了探讨信任与风险感知负相关关系的机制,采用问卷法检验信息加工方式在信任与风险感知之间的中介作用,回收有效问卷863份。结果发现:在洪水风险问题中,政府信任越高,越可能诱发个体对信息进行启发加工,也有较低的风险感知,即启发加工在政府信任与风险感知之间的中介效应显著;而系统加工的中介作用并不显著,低的政府信任直接导致高的风险感知。研究3为了进一步支撑信息加工在信任与风险感知之间存在中介作用的结论,采用了实验法。将160名实验参与者随机分配到阅读高信任材料组和低信任材料组,随后测量他们对风险信息的加工方式和风险感知。结果发现了同研究2相一致的结果,支持了本研究的假设模型。本研究通过检验中国洪水问题背景中,民众对政府的信任与他们的风险感知问题,不仅为厘清信任与风险感知的关系提供了进一步的实证数据支持,也同时给政府参与治理风险干预工作提供了一定的启示。
[Abstract]:The threat of flood is still one of the most important disasters facing the society today. In flood prevention and management, people's risk perception is one of the important determinants. Understanding the relevant factors and their mechanism of influencing people's risk perception is of great value to the social governance in reality and can help us to perfect the research theory of risk perception. In the past, some scholars proposed that trust can significantly reduce people's risk perception, however, some people think that trust can not reduce risk perception. Can trust reduce risk perception? If trust can reduce risk perception, through what mechanism? According to the possibility model of fine processing of risk, trust can influence the way of individual processing information, making individuals adopt heuristic processing or system processing, and then produce different risk perception. In order to test this hypothetical model, through three small studies, using correlation method and experimental method, this study examines whether trust affects risk perception and how to affect risk perception in China. In order to investigate whether trust has an important relationship with risk perception, 330 adults were used to study the flood risk in China. People's trust in government is negatively correlated with their risk perception. The results showed that as people's trust in government increased, their risk perception became lower and lower. In order to explore the mechanism of negative correlation between trust and risk perception, the questionnaire method was used to examine the intermediary effect of information processing on trust and risk perception, and 863 valid questionnaires were collected. The results show that the higher the government trust is, the more likely it is to induce individuals to process the information and have lower risk perception, that is, the intermediary effect of heuristic processing between government trust and risk perception is significant. But the intermediary function of system processing is not significant, low government trust directly leads to high risk perception. In order to further support the conclusion that information processing plays an intermediary role between trust and risk perception, the experimental method is adopted. 160 participants were randomly assigned to read high trust material group and low trust material group, and then measured their processing mode and risk perception of risk information. The results are consistent with the results of study 2 and support the hypothetical model of this study. This study not only provides further empirical data support for clarifying the relationship between trust and risk perception, but also examines people's trust in government and their risk perception in the context of flood problems in China. At the same time, the government to participate in the governance of risk intervention work to provide some inspiration.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：B842

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