“一带一路”倡议背景下中国对中亚农产品进口三元边际及影响因素

发布时间：2018-05-16 02:25

本文选题：“一带一路”倡议 + 中亚　；参考：《价格月刊》2017年12期

【摘要】：借鉴HummelsKlenow(胡梅尔斯和克莱诺,2005)的三元边际分解框架,采用2003年~2015年国际贸易数据,考察"一带一路"倡议背景下中国进口中亚农产品三元边际的特征事实和影响因素。从总体特征来看,拓展边际是中国对中亚进口增长的主要方式,价格边际贡献次之,数量边际反而有所下降。从动态分布演进来看,中国从中亚国家进口农产品的拓展边际有所提高,但国家间差距呈波浪上升状;价格边际从趋同到趋异,差异不断扩大;数量边际平稳与剧烈并存,变动趋势不一。从影响因素来看,特征变量对三元边际作用方向和作用强度不尽相同,中国和中亚需要根据各变量作用机制在科技、金融、信息、自贸区建设以及政策协调等领域深化合作。
[Abstract]:Based on the ternary marginal decomposition framework of Hummels Klenowow (Hummel and Clenor 2005) and the international trade data from 2003 to 2015, this paper investigates the characteristics and influencing factors of the ternary marginal imports of Chinese agricultural products from Central Asia under the background of the "Belt and Road" initiative. According to the overall characteristics, the marginal expansion is the main way for China to increase imports in Central Asia, the marginal contribution of price is second, and the margin of quantity decreases. From the point of view of dynamic distribution and evolution, the expanding margin of Chinese agricultural products imported from Central Asian countries has been improved, but the gap between countries has been rising; the price margin has changed from convergence to divergence, and the difference has been widening; the margin of quantity has coexisted steadily and violently. Trends vary. From the point of view of influencing factors, the direction and intensity of ternary marginal action of characteristic variables are different. China and Central Asia need to deepen cooperation in the fields of science and technology, finance, information, free trade zone construction and policy coordination according to the action mechanism of each variable.
【作者单位】：新疆大学;
【基金】：新疆社科基金项目“中亚国家经济形势跟踪研究”(编号:14BJLO22)
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.61

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