重庆生态脆弱区农户气候变化感知及适应性行为研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 16:18

本文选题：生态脆弱区　切入点：气候变化　出处：《西南大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：气候变化已经成为当前无可争议的全球性环境问题,是目前全球面临的严峻挑战之一。事实上,在当前背景下,气候变化在短期内已经是不可逆问题。气候变化及其挟裹而来的各种气候风险,更是导致贫困地区人类生计困难和贫困的主要致因。在我国,贫困地区与生态与环境脆弱地带具有高度的相关性,两者在地理空间分布上具有较高的一致性,生态脆弱区的农户也是气候变化直接的受害者。气候变化使农业生产条件及产业结构发生重大变化,这不仅威胁到中国甚至世界的粮食安全,而且增大了农民收入波动的幅度。因此,在全球致力于减缓气候变化的同时,农民和农业适应气候变化不仅是国际社会关注的焦点,也成为中国政府落实可持续发展战略的重点。从宏观层面讲,适应是保障粮食安全的重要举措;从微观层面讲,适应是落实宏观政策、实现宏观目标的具体体现。准确了解农民对于气候变化的感知、他们所采取的适应性行为及行为的决定机制,对于政府制定旨在提升农业适应气候变化能力的政策,是非常重要的。本文通过资料收集、问卷调查及模型构建等方法,分析了农户对气候变化的感知与适应。首先收集了万州区、云阳县、黔江区和酉阳县等4个生态脆弱区的气象资料,实地调查该区县12个村落、360个农户的基本情况和对气候的感知情况,通过生计分析、参与式农村评估等方法,分析了气候变化对农户生计的影响。然后,依据问卷调查结果,构建了Heckman Probit选择模型和MNL模型,分析了影响农户感知与适应气候变化的因素,探究了农户应对气候变化能力的限制因素。最后依据生态脆弱区的实际情况,提出了具有针对性的适应行为并分析了其带来的社会、经济、生态效益,以期帮助农户更好的应对气候变化,脱贫增收。研究得到的主要结论如下:(1)酉阳县等生态脆弱区气候发生一定变化,气象灾害频发。气候的变化对农户的自然资本、人力资本、金融资本、社会资本、物质资本等生计资本产生了不同程度的影响,主要表现为影响了水资源、土壤、贫困发生率、劳动力数量和质量、农民收入等,造成了农民生活上的困难。(2)农户性别、年龄、家庭务农人数、耕地面积和气候因素对农户感知与适应气候变化产生了极显著的影响;文化程度、年均收入、气象信息的获取则产生了显著的影响。农户文化程度低、家庭收入少、水资源缺乏、气象信息不能及时获取等是限制农户应对气候变化的重要因素。(3)农户应不断提高自身的应对气候变化的能力,培养学习意识,学习先进技术,吸收创新理念;政府相关部门也应帮助农户实施适应性行为应对气候变化,如:集雨保水抗旱、调整作物种植结构、灾害预防、土地整改、生态工程建设等。(4)云阳县、酉阳县等4个生态脆弱区县在政府的大力支持下均开展了应对气候变化的适应性行为,达到了集经济、社会、生态“三位一体”的效益,如黔江区黄柏中药材基地的建立、万州区山坪塘的整治、酉阳县乡村道路的修建等。最后建议在探讨如何更好的应对气候变化这一热点问题时,应设身处地为农户着想,对于应对气候变化工作的政策设计和推进中要真正覆盖到生态脆弱区,覆盖到农村,尤其是贫困农村中的弱势小农的利益。同时在研究适应性行为时,要具有针对性,清楚了解不同生态脆弱区、不同贫困村落的农户真正的所需所求。
[Abstract]:Climate change has become a global environmental problem that current undisputed, is one of the most serious challenges currently facing the world. In fact, in the current context, climate change is irreversible. All kinds of problems in the short term climate change and climate risk wrapped up and is led to poor areas of human livelihood and poverty is mainly caused by the difficulties because in our country, the poor areas and ecological and environmental fragile areas are highly related, both have high consistency in spatial distribution, ecological fragile area farmers and climate change direct victims of climate change. The conditions of agricultural production and industrial structure change, this is not only a threat to China even the world's food security, but also increases the farmers' income volatility. Therefore, in the global effort to mitigate climate change and adapt to climate change, farmers and agriculture Not only is the focus of the international community, has become the focus of Chinese government to implement the strategy of sustainable development. From the macro perspective, adaptation is an important measure to ensure food security; from the micro level, is to adapt to the implementation of macroeconomic policies, the specific embodiment of the realization of the goal of macro. To accurately understand the farmers' perception on climate change, the decision mechanism of adaptive behavior and they have taken, for the government to enhance agricultural capacity to adapt to climate change policy is very important. In this paper, through data collection, questionnaire survey and model construction method, analyzes the farmers' perception of climate change and adaptation. First collected in Wanzhou District, Yunyang County, Qianjiang District Meteorological Data Youyang county and 4 ecological fragile area, field survey of 12 villages in the county, the basic situation of 360 farmers and the climate perception, through livelihood analysis, participation The assessment methods, analysis of the impact of climate change on the livelihood of farmers. Then, based on the survey results, to construct the Heckman Probit model and MNL model, analyzes the influence of perception and adaptation to climate change factors, explore the limiting factors of farmers to cope with climate change capacity. Finally, based on the actual situation of ecological fragile areas the proposed adaptive behavior and analyzes the social, economic and ecological benefits, in order to cope with climate change, the better to help farmers out of poverty income. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) Youyang County Ecological Fragile Areas of climate change and meteorological disasters. Natural capital. Climate change on human capital, financial capital, social capital, the influence of material capital and other livelihood capital and mainly affect water resources, soil, poverty The incidence rate, the quantity and quality of labor force, the income of peasants, farmers caused difficulties in life. (2) farmers' gender, age, number of farming families, cultivated area and climatic factors on Farmers' perception and adaptation to climate change has significant effect; cultural degree, average annual income, access to meteorological information is generated a significant impact. Farmers' low educational level, family income is little, lack of water resources, can not be timely access to meteorological information are important factors limiting farmers to cope with climate change. (3) farmers should constantly improve their own climate change ability, cultivate learning consciousness, learning advanced technology, innovative ideas to absorb the relevant government; departments should also help farmers to implement adaptive behavior in response to climate change, such as rain water and drought, adjustment of crop planting structure, disaster prevention, land reform, ecological construction and so on. (4) Yunyang County, Youyang county 4 Adaptive behavior in ecological fragile district were carried out in response to climate change in the strong support of the government, to set the economic, social and ecological benefits of "three-in-one", such as the traditional base of Qianjiang District in Wanzhou District, phellodendron, mountain Pingtang remediation, Youyang County Rural Road Construction and so on. Finally, the suggestions in this a hot issue in the discussion of how to better cope with climate change, should look for the farmers' sake, and promote the policy design for responding to climate change in the real coverage to ecologically fragile areas, coverage to rural areas, especially in poor rural areas in vulnerable farmers interests. At the same time in the study of adaptive behavior, to targeted. A clear understanding of the different ecological fragile areas, different poverty village farmers really needed to ask.

【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S162;F323.6

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