2011-2015年陕西省肾综合征出血热时空聚集性分析

发布时间：2018-03-30 11:20

本文选题：肾综合征出血热　切入点：空间自相关　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年09期

【摘要】：目的通过时空聚集性分析方法,掌握2011-2015年陕西省肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病情况的时空分布特征。方法收集"中国疾病控制信息系统"中2011-2015年陕西省各个县(区)HFRS报告数据,采用Geoda1.6.7软件进行空间全局和局部自相关分析,SatScan9.4.2软件进行时空扫描,同时将相关分析结果使用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行可视化地图展示。结果 2011-2015年陕西省累计报告HFRS 10 026例,年均发病率为5.35/10万,发病季节性呈现出明显的双峰特征(秋冬峰为10月至次年1月;夏季峰为6-7月),高发县区集中在关中地区;空间自相关结果显示区域内存在"高-高"(或热点区域,主要分布于西安、宝鸡和和咸阳)、"低-低"(或冷点区域,分布于延安、汉中、榆林和安康)等关联模式的县(区);时空扫描分析探测到时间维度为2012年10月-2013年1月,空间维度覆盖宝鸡、咸阳和西安部分县区的聚集区(RR=12.68,P0.001),聚集区在5年中位置相对固定。结论陕西省HFRS发病具有明显的时空分布特征,关中地区为发病聚集区域,是HFRS的重点防控地区。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the spatial and temporal distribution of HFRS in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) from 2011 to 2015 in Shaanxi Province by means of spatio-temporal aggregation analysis. Methods the data of HFRS reports from counties (districts) in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2015 were collected from China Disease Control Information system. The spatial global and local autocorrelation analysis was carried out by Geoda1.6.7 software, and the results of correlation analysis were displayed using ArcGIS 10.2 software. Results 10,026 cases of HFRS were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2015. The average annual incidence rate was 5.35 / 100 thousand. The seasonal incidence showed two peaks (from October to January in autumn and winter, June to July in summer, and concentrated in Guanzhong area in the county of high incidence. The spatial autocorrelation results show that there are "high and high" (or hot spots) in the region, mainly distributed in Xi'an, Baoji and Xianyang, "low-low" (or cold-point area, distributed in Yan'an, Hanzhong), Counties (regions) with associated models such as Yulin and Ankang; Spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that the time dimension was from October 2012 to January 2013, and the spatial dimension covered Baoji. In Xianyang and some counties in Xi'an, the RRN 12.68 P0.001 was relatively fixed in the five years. Conclusion the incidence of HFRS in Shaanxi Province has obvious space-time distribution characteristics, Guanzhong area is the focus area of HFRS prevention and control.
【作者单位】：陕西省疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R181.3;R512.8

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