福建省消除疟疾地区重新流行风险指标体系的构建

发布时间：2018-05-28 04:15

本文选题：疟疾 + 消除　；参考：《中国人兽共患病学报》2015年11期

【摘要】：目的在福建省连续十年没有当地感染疟疾的背景下,建立消除疟疾地区重新流行风险指标体系并确定各指标权重。方法遵循专家德尔菲法和层次分析法,选择恰当符合我省疟疾防控实际的指标建立评价指标体系,并确定各指标的权重。结果专家咨询的积极系数为100%,权威系数为0.842,Kendall协调系数为0.493,χ2=29.5740,P0.001。构建福建省消除疟疾地区重新流行风险指标评估体系,包括5个一级指标,11个二级指标,指标体系的内在信度Cronbach’s alpha系数为0.77250.7,基本符合要求。结构效度分析,KMO值为0.527,Bartlett’s检验的χ2=80.807,P=0.0130.05,适合作因子分析。评价指标的公因子方差均大于0.74,5个主成分的累积贡献率为85.743%。根据专家综合评分应用层次分析法确定各级指标权重,其中一级指标包括传染源、传疟媒介、易感人群、自然因素和社会因素,权重分别为0.263 8,0.510 0,0.129 6,0.032 9,0.063 6;λmax=5.237 2,CI=0.059 3,CR=0.052 9。各评价指标的组合权重中,媒介按蚊种类的权重最高,为0.340 2,各县输入型病例数权重第2,为0.230 8,符合我省目前疟疾消除的防控现状。结论选择恰当符合福建省实际的指标建立了消除疟疾地区重新流行指标体系,为今后科学、客观、全面的对疟疾重新流行的风险评价提供基础。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a re-epidemic risk index system and determine the weight of each index under the background of no local malaria infection in Fujian province for ten consecutive years. Methods according to the expert Delphi method and Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the evaluation index system was established and the weight of each index was determined. Results the positive coefficient of expert consultation was 100, the authority coefficient was 0.842 Kendall coordination coefficient was 0.493, 蠂 2 was 29.5740% P 0.001. The evaluation system of re-epidemic risk index in malaria elimination area in Fujian Province was constructed, including 5 first-grade indexes and 11 second-class indexes. The intrinsic reliability Cronbach's alpha coefficient of the index system was 0.77250.7, which basically met the requirements. The KMO value of the structural validity analysis was 0.527m Bartletts-test 蠂 _ 2 / 80.807 / P _ (0.0130.05), which was suitable for factor analysis. The common factor variance of the evaluation index was greater than 0.74, and the cumulative contribution rate of the five principal components was 85.743. According to the comprehensive score of experts, the weight of indexes at all levels was determined by AHP. The first grade indexes included infection source, malaria vector, susceptible population, natural factor and social factor. The weights were 0.263 80.50100 / 0.1296 (0.032 / 90.063), and 位 max=5.237 _ 2CII _ (0.059) ~ (3) CRT 0.0552 / 952, respectively. Among the combined weights of each evaluation index, Anopheles vector species had the highest weight (0.340 2), and the number of input-type cases in each county was the second (0.230 8), which was in line with the current situation of malaria control and prevention in our province. Conclusion the re-prevalence index system of malaria elimination in Fujian Province is established by choosing the appropriate index which can provide a scientific objective and comprehensive risk assessment for malaria re-prevalence.
【作者单位】：福建医科大学公共卫生学院;福建省疾病预防控制中心;
【分类号】：R531.3

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