系统状态描述方法及其在艾滋病防治效果综合评价中的应用

发布时间：2018-07-24 21:04

【摘要】：艾滋病是世界性重大公共卫生问题和社会问题，其传播很大程度上与人群的个人行为、经济和社会政策密切相关，且至今在医学界还没有找到可以治愈这种疾病的药物，因此综合防治是目前对付艾滋病的最好手段。如何准确的综合评价各地的防治情况，对提高艾滋病防治资源利用效率和艾滋病综合防治工作质量具有重大的现实意义，目前尚未有比较成熟的综合评价体系和方法。本文在采用文献复习法和三轮专家咨询的基础上，拟定了一套艾滋病防治绩效综合评价指标体系，第三轮专家咨询结合层次分析法给各级指标赋予权重；以重庆市39个区县为评价对象，收集各个区县从2006年到2012年这七年间的三级指标数据进行评价分析。为克服单一评价方法的片面性，本文运用了Z分值法、Topsis法、秩和比法、密切值法、加权线性综合指数法、功效系数法、混合综合指数法7种综合评价的方法对各个区县的艾滋病防治工作进行综合评价。在此基础上，，本文引入了一种新的评价方法：系统状态描述方法，旨在用全新的思路来进行综合评价。本文建立了一套由2个一级指标、6个二级指标和31个三级指标组成的艾滋病防治综合评价指标体系；专家对各级指标的等级打分，均通过了一致性检验。在对39个区县7年的防治工作进行评价时，首先采用了7种传统综合评价方法。7种传统综合评价结果显示，7种方法的排序结果一致性较差，运用Kendall一致性检验对各个评分结果进行两两检验，挑选出W值最大的评价方法进行综合重排序评价，最终选定了Z分值法、密切值法、Topsis法进行综合重排序评价。然后将重庆市各个区县看作一个区域系统，运用系统状态描述方法对其进行分析，以各区域的状态值作为分类指标，结合K-means聚类法将区域系统聚为三类，并将三大类区域的指标差异进行了分析描述。结果表明，借助系统状态描述方法的核函数工具和尺度工具，以系统的角度去分析各区域的艾滋病防治工作，其分类结果与传统的评价方法有较好的一致性，表明系统状态描述方法能够有效的运用于艾滋病防治工作的评价，为今后的艾滋病防治工作评价提供了一种新的评价思路和方法。
[Abstract]:AIDS is a major public health and social problem in the world, and its spread is largely related to the individual behavior, economic and social policies of the population, and no medicine has yet been found in the medical profession to cure the disease. Therefore, comprehensive prevention and treatment is the best way to deal with AIDS. It is of great practical significance to evaluate the prevention and cure situation in various places accurately. It is of great practical significance to improve the utilization efficiency of AIDS prevention and control resources and the quality of comprehensive prevention and treatment of AIDS. At present, there is not yet a mature comprehensive evaluation system and method. On the basis of literature review method and three rounds of expert consultation, this paper draws up a set of comprehensive evaluation index system of AIDS prevention and control performance. The third round of expert consultation combined with analytic hierarchy process gives weight to all levels of indicators. Taking 39 districts and counties of Chongqing as the evaluation object, the data of three level indexes from 2006 to 2012 were collected for evaluation and analysis. In order to overcome the one-sidedness of the single evaluation method, this paper uses the Z score method and Topsis method, the rank sum ratio method, the close value method, the weighted linear comprehensive index method, the efficacy coefficient method. Seven comprehensive evaluation methods were used to evaluate the prevention and treatment of AIDS in all districts and counties. On this basis, a new evaluation method, system state description method, is introduced in this paper. In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation index system of AIDS prevention and treatment is established, which is composed of two first-grade indexes, six second-class indexes and 31 third-level indexes. In the evaluation of prevention and control work in 39 districts and counties for 7 years, the results of 7 kinds of traditional comprehensive evaluation methods and 7 kinds of traditional comprehensive evaluation methods show that the ranking results of seven methods are poor. The Kendall consistency test is used to test the results of each score, and the evaluation method with the largest W value is selected for comprehensive reorder evaluation. Finally, the Z score method and the close value method are selected to carry out the comprehensive reordering evaluation. Then every district and county in Chongqing is regarded as a regional system, and the system state description method is used to analyze the system. The state value of each region is taken as the classification index, and the regional system is grouped into three categories with K-means clustering method. The index differences of the three major regions are analyzed and described. The results show that with the help of kernel function and scale tools of the system state description method, the AIDS prevention and control work in various regions is analyzed from a systematic perspective. The classification results are in good agreement with the traditional evaluation methods. The results show that the system state description method can be effectively applied to the evaluation of AIDS prevention and control, and provides a new evaluation method for the future evaluation of AIDS prevention and treatment.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：R512.91

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