西北牧区草食畜牧业生产力评价及发展潜力研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 17:10

本文选题：西北牧区　切入点：草食畜牧业　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：西北地区地域辽阔,饲草资源丰富,是发展畜牧业的理想之地。并且在国家加快推进产业结构调整,推进农业供给侧结构性改革以及“丝绸之路经济带”建设等宏观背景下,国家一再强调优化畜种结构和区域布局,鼓励调结构、转方式,大力支持发展草食畜牧业。因此,我国畜牧业主产区逐步向西北转移已成必然趋势。据此,研究西北牧区草食畜牧业生产力水平和发展潜力,旨在分析其在保障本地区动物源性食品消费需求的前提下,究竟能为区外提供多少畜产品?而且,西北牧区能否抓住国家实施畜牧业“西移北进”战略的重大历史机遇,使其草食畜牧业得以转型升级和跨越式发展,值得深入分析研究,其结果可为国家宏观政策调整和区域发展策略制定提供科学依据。本研究根据中国工程院重大战略咨询项目要求,“西北地区”包括陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、山西以及内蒙古自治区除东部4盟外的西部地区,共涉及7个省区。本论文以上述区域的甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆以及内蒙古自治区东部4盟外的牧区部分为研究对象,采取查阅文献和年鉴资料、典型调查、专家咨询等方式,应用主成分分析法和灰色预测法GM(1,1)模型,开展了西北牧区草食畜牧业生产力评价及发展潜力研究。获得如下研究结果:一、西北牧区地广人稀,草地资源丰富,总体而言,西北牧区草畜总体平衡,但天然草地超载严重,2015年当地天然草地牲畜超载率高达34.4%。二、“十二五”期间,西北牧区牛羊肉产量呈逐年上升态势,年均增幅分别为4.0%和2.9%,奶类产量有所下降,年均降幅为1.2%。2015年西北牧区畜产品在满足当地自身消费外还可满足该区域外21795.9万城乡居民的需要。三、主成分分析结果显示,内蒙古和新疆草食畜牧业产业基础优势和发展水平较高。影响产业发展的主要因素为牛羊出栏率、牧草单产等。四、预测结果显示,2020年该地区牛羊肉产量较2015年可分别增加5.28万t和24.12万t,发展潜力较大,奶类产量仍有所下降。如果到2020年,当地饲草总产量提高25%、牛羊出栏率提高15%时,西北牧区草食畜牧业生产就可以实现草畜全面平衡。五、根据预测结果以及优化方案,对西北牧区发展草食畜牧业生产提出7点对策建议:(1)完善草原管理制度,依法落实各项管护措施;(2)改良天然草场,加强草原保护建设;(3)加强人工草地建设,推进牧草产业化发展;(4)转变牛羊饲养模式,适当进行补饲;(5)成立专业合作社,加强信息平台建设,推动畜产品贸易;(6)加大资金投入,积极落实各项补贴政策;(7)加大科技投入力度,加强科技创新和实用技术推广,提高良种化程度和科技贡献率。
[Abstract]:With its vast territory and abundant forage resources, Northwest China is an ideal place to develop animal husbandry. In the macro-background, such as accelerating the adjustment of the industrial structure, promoting the structural reform of the supply side of agriculture and the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, etc. The state has repeatedly emphasized the optimization of the structure and regional distribution of livestock species, encouraged the adjustment of structure and mode, and vigorously supported the development of herbivorous animal husbandry. Accordingly, the gradual transfer of the main livestock production areas of China to the northwest has become an inevitable trend. This paper studies the productivity level and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in northwest pastoral area in order to analyze how many animal products can be provided outside the area under the premise of ensuring the consumption demand of animal origin food in this area. Moreover, whether the northwest pastoral areas can seize the great historical opportunity for the country to implement the strategy of "moving from west to north", so that the herbivorous animal husbandry can be transformed and upgraded and developed by leaps and bounds, is worthy of in-depth analysis and study. The results can provide a scientific basis for the adjustment of national macro policy and the formulation of regional development strategies. According to the requirements of major strategic consulting projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the "Northwest region" includes Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and the western region of Inner Mongolia involve seven provinces and regions except for the east four alliances. This paper takes the pastoral areas of Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and the eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous region as the research objects. By means of consulting literature and yearbook data, typical investigation, expert consultation and so on, the principal component analysis method and grey forecast method GM1 / 1) model were used. The study on productivity evaluation and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in northwest pasturing area was carried out. The results were as follows: 1. But the natural grassland overloading is serious, in 2015 the local natural grassland livestock overload rate is as high as 34.44.2.2.In the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the beef and mutton production in the northwest pasturing area increased year by year, the average annual increase was 4.0% and 2.9 respectively, and the milk production decreased. The average annual decline is 1.20.The livestock products in northwest pastoral areas from 2015 to 2015 can meet the needs of two hundred and seventeen million nine hundred and fifty-nine thousand urban and rural residents outside the region in addition to their own consumption. Third, the principal component analysis results show that, The basic advantages and development level of herbivorous animal husbandry industry in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are relatively high. The main factors affecting the development of the industry are cattle and sheep herding rate, forage yield per unit yield, etc. The forecast results showed that the yield of beef and mutton in this area could increase 52,800 t and 241,200 t respectively compared with 2015 on 2020, and the development potential was great, and the milk yield was still decreasing. If the total yield of forage was increased by 25% by 2020, and the rate of cattle and sheep was increased by 15 t, the rate of cattle and sheep was increased by 15 t. The production of herbivorous animal husbandry in the pastoral area of Northwest China can achieve an overall balance. Fifthly, according to the forecast results and the optimization scheme, the paper puts forward seven countermeasures and suggestions for the development of herbivorous animal husbandry production in the pastoral area of northwest China) and consummates the grassland management system. Carrying out various management and conservation measures according to law: improving natural pasture, strengthening grassland protection and construction, strengthening artificial grassland construction, promoting the development of herbage industrialization, changing the raising mode of cattle and sheep, properly carrying out supplementary feeding, setting up specialized cooperatives, Strengthening the construction of information platform, promoting livestock product trade to increase the investment of funds, actively implementing various subsidy policies and increasing the intensity of scientific and technological investment, strengthening scientific and technological innovation and practical technology popularization, improving the degree of seed production and the rate of contribution of science and technology.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.3

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