锡林河流域河川基流对气候变化与人类活动的响应特征研究
发布时间：2018-11-22 20:45
【摘要】：受全球气候变化影响,内蒙古东部草原地区河流干涸、湿地萎缩等干旱缺水问题突出,草原沙化退化加剧,人类活动对草原流域水文过程造成强烈扰动,径流量发生显著变化,制约流域社会经济发展,直接影响草原生态环境。基流作为径流的重要组分,在维持水量平衡和评价管理水资源中起着重要作用。在此背景下,定量分析气候变化和人类活动对基流的影响,对维持流域良性水文循环和草原生态环境可持续发展等方面具有重大意义。本文选择寒旱区典型草原流域—锡林河流域为研究对象,开展流域基流对气候变化与人类活动的响应研究。取得的主要成果如下：(1)评价数字滤波法、HYSEP分割法、平滑最小值法和加里宁试算法4类共9种自动基流分割方法在锡林河流域的适用性,结果表明：采用3次迭代数字滤波法(F1法、β=0.85)估算的基流稳定性良好,验证结果可靠性高,适用性最佳。(2)分析各气象要素变化特征,揭示流域基流演变规律。气温整体显著上升(0.426℃/10a),蒸发量显著增加(4.322mm/a),温度越高,蒸发量越大；降水量下降不显著(-0.446 mm/a),呈“单峰型”分布。基流年内分配极不均匀,完全依赖冰雪融水和降水混合补给,“双峰型”明显。多年平均基流深为2.24mm,基流整体下降显著(-0.025mm/a),60-70年代增幅较小,80-90年代先减少后增加直至最大；21世纪以后下降明显。存在22～32年,6-13年和3-5年的3种尺度的周期震荡规律。在大时间尺度上共出现5次枯-丰交替变换,预测基流有转向增加的趋势。(3)定性研究基流对气候变化和人类活动的响应过程。降水与基流呈极显著相关,蒸发与基流呈显著负相关,气温通过对蒸发产生作用间接影响基流。径流相对降水、基流相对径流均具有滞后效应,不同水文年的滞后时长存在以下关系：丰水年枯水年平水年。枯水期地表径流量相对降水量的滞后效应比丰水期明显,枯水期基流量相对地表径流滞后的时间比丰水期略短。城市扩张与过度放牧、地下水不合理开发利用、煤矿开采及水土保持活动等多种人类活动共同影响基流。(4)定量分解气候和人类活动对基流变化的贡献率。以拐点年份1979、1991和1998年为界,将1963-2012年划分为基准期(T1)和措施期(T2-T4),在措施期气候变化对基流的贡献率分别为54.15%、30.24%和43.76%,人类活动对基流的贡献率分别为45.85%、69.76%和56.24%,T2阶段气候变化是基流量缩减的主要驱动因素,T3与T4阶段人类活动是引起基流变化的主要原因。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of global climate change, the problems of drought and water shortage, such as river drying up and wetland atrophy in eastern Inner Mongolia, are prominent, the degradation of grassland desertification has intensified, and human activities have caused strong disturbance to the hydrological process of steppe basins, resulting in significant changes in runoff. Restrict the social and economic development of the basin, directly affect the grassland ecological environment. As an important component of runoff, base flow plays an important role in maintaining water balance and evaluating and managing water resources. In this context, the quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on the basic flow is of great significance in maintaining the benign hydrological cycle of the watershed and the sustainable development of the grassland ecological environment. In this paper, a typical steppe basin in cold and arid region, Xilin River Basin, is selected as the research object, and the response of the watershed base flow to climate change and human activities is studied. The main achievements are as follows: (1) the applicability of 9 kinds of automatic base-current segmentation methods, including digital filtering, HYSEP segmentation, smooth minimum method and Kalinen trial algorithm, in the Xilin River Basin is evaluated. The results show that the base flow estimated by the three times iterative digital filtering method (F1 method, 尾 = 0.85) has good stability, high reliability and optimum applicability. (2) the variation characteristics of various meteorological elements are analyzed and the evolution law of the basic flow in the basin is revealed. The temperature increased significantly (0.426 鈩，
本文编号：2350538
[Abstract]:Under the influence of global climate change, the problems of drought and water shortage, such as river drying up and wetland atrophy in eastern Inner Mongolia, are prominent, the degradation of grassland desertification has intensified, and human activities have caused strong disturbance to the hydrological process of steppe basins, resulting in significant changes in runoff. Restrict the social and economic development of the basin, directly affect the grassland ecological environment. As an important component of runoff, base flow plays an important role in maintaining water balance and evaluating and managing water resources. In this context, the quantitative analysis of the effects of climate change and human activities on the basic flow is of great significance in maintaining the benign hydrological cycle of the watershed and the sustainable development of the grassland ecological environment. In this paper, a typical steppe basin in cold and arid region, Xilin River Basin, is selected as the research object, and the response of the watershed base flow to climate change and human activities is studied. The main achievements are as follows: (1) the applicability of 9 kinds of automatic base-current segmentation methods, including digital filtering, HYSEP segmentation, smooth minimum method and Kalinen trial algorithm, in the Xilin River Basin is evaluated. The results show that the base flow estimated by the three times iterative digital filtering method (F1 method, 尾 = 0.85) has good stability, high reliability and optimum applicability. (2) the variation characteristics of various meteorological elements are analyzed and the evolution law of the basic flow in the basin is revealed. The temperature increased significantly (0.426 鈩，
本文编号：2350538
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