气候变化对新疆意大利蝗潜在分布的影响
发布时间：2019-08-14 09:37
【摘要】：意大利蝗Calliptamus italicus(L.)是新疆草原主要优势蝗虫之一,每年给新疆畜牧业经济带来严重损失,气候变化对其潜在分布影响的预测对其科学防治有重要意义。本研究采用意大利蝗的分布数据和生物气候数据,结合MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,预测了BCC_CSM1.1气候模式下政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次工作报告(IPCC AR5)采用的RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种气候情景在2021-2040年(2030s)、2041-2060年(2050s)和2061-2080年(2070s)的意大利蝗新疆潜在适生区分布范围。结果表明:在BCC_CSM1.1的各情景下,意大利蝗适生区在北疆及天山一带分布格局基本保持不变,但高度适生区面积都有所增加,其中在天山和阿尔泰山地区,意大利蝗中、高度适生区范围将向更高海拔区域蔓延,在北疆阿勒泰地区高度适生区明显增加。极端水分条件和水热条件对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布发挥主要作用,其中4月、10月、3月和11月降水量对意大利蝗在新疆潜在分布影响最大,因其直接影响土壤相对含水量和土壤温度,从而决定意大利蝗卵的存活量。
[Abstract]:Italian locust Calliptamus italicus (L.) It is one of the main dominant locusts in Xinjiang grassland, which brings serious losses to Xinjiang animal husbandry economy every year. The prediction of the influence of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to its scientific prevention and control. In this study, the distribution data and bioclimatic data of Italian locust, combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, were used to predict the distribution range of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios used in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC AR5) under BCC_CSM1.1 climate model in 2021-2040 (2030s), 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070 s). The results showed that the distribution pattern of Italian locust in northern Xinjiang and Tianshan remained basically unchanged, but the area of highly suitable area increased, among them, in Tianshan and Altai mountains, the range of highly suitable area would spread to higher altitude area, and the highly suitable area in Altay area of northern Xinjiang would increase obviously. Extreme water conditions and hydrothermal conditions play a major role in the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, among which precipitation in April, October, March and November has the greatest effect on the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, because it directly affects the relative soil water content and soil temperature, thus determining the survival of Italian locust eggs.
【作者单位】： 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;新疆大学智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室;新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥部办公室;
【基金】：新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥办公室委托项目(2016) 新疆维吾尔自治区高层次人才培养计划项目(104-40002) 教育部创新团队项目(IRT1180)
【分类号】：S812.6
本文编号：2526486
[Abstract]:Italian locust Calliptamus italicus (L.) It is one of the main dominant locusts in Xinjiang grassland, which brings serious losses to Xinjiang animal husbandry economy every year. The prediction of the influence of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to its scientific prevention and control. In this study, the distribution data and bioclimatic data of Italian locust, combined with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, were used to predict the distribution range of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios used in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC AR5) under BCC_CSM1.1 climate model in 2021-2040 (2030s), 2041-2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070 s). The results showed that the distribution pattern of Italian locust in northern Xinjiang and Tianshan remained basically unchanged, but the area of highly suitable area increased, among them, in Tianshan and Altai mountains, the range of highly suitable area would spread to higher altitude area, and the highly suitable area in Altay area of northern Xinjiang would increase obviously. Extreme water conditions and hydrothermal conditions play a major role in the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, among which precipitation in April, October, March and November has the greatest effect on the potential distribution of Italian locust in Xinjiang, because it directly affects the relative soil water content and soil temperature, thus determining the survival of Italian locust eggs.
【作者单位】： 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;新疆大学智慧城市与环境建模普通高校重点实验室;新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥部办公室;
【基金】：新疆维吾尔自治区治蝗灭鼠指挥办公室委托项目(2016) 新疆维吾尔自治区高层次人才培养计划项目(104-40002) 教育部创新团队项目(IRT1180)
【分类号】：S812.6
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