基于复合成本性态的天然气管输定价模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 05:18

本文关键词：基于复合成本性态的天然气管输定价模型研究　出处：《西安石油大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：未来天然气消费推动力十足,按照国务院《能源发展战略行动计划(2014-2020年)》,到2020年,天然气在一次能源消费中的比重要提高到10%以上。2016年10月9日,国家发改委印发了“管输定价新政”(发改价格规[2016]2142号),规定了有关管输定价的最新政策,这是对天然气管输定价机制的一次重大改革,可见加深对天然气管输定价方法的研究势在必行。本文首先在文献综述的基础上,分析了我国目前天然气管输定价机制存在的局限性,探讨了天然气管输成本动因的复合性,提出了复合输气量的概念;其次,介绍了天然气管输复合输气量的计算方法、管输成本的归集与发改委“管输定价新政”中对管输成本的规定,对天然气管输复合成本动因进行了实证检验,并讨论了管输企业的目标利润问题;接着,分析了传统的基于“比价倒算法”管输定价法存在的弊端,在成本加成法的基础上,推导出了天然气管输定价公式,进一步建立了基于复合成本性态的天然气管输定价模型,并对模型的参数进行了分析;最后,以中石油东部管道有限公司W管理处为例,对模型进行了应用,并对代表性管输站点进行了管输利润敏感性分析,研究得到:我国现行的管输价格被高估了50%以上;通过管输价格与天然气市场销售价格的比价关系,测算出了天然气管输的市场价格,得到了该价格的一个区间,高于基于投资收益率的管输测算价格,低于实际管输价格;在影响管输利润的诸因素中,敏感性由强到弱依次为:管输单价、复合输气量、管输固定成本、管输变动成本。面临新试行的天然气“管输定价新政”,此模型具有很大的借鉴与应用价值,管输企业应提高警惕,在未来可能出现的较低管输价格的情况下,要为保持或提高利润提前做好准备。
[Abstract]:The future of natural gas consumption is full of impetus, according to the State Council's Energy Development Strategy Action Plan 2014-2020, until 2020. The proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption has risen to more than 10%. In October 9th 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the New Policy on Pipeline pricing. [2142, the latest policy on pipeline pricing, is a major reform of the pricing mechanism for natural gas pipelines. Therefore, it is imperative to deepen the research on the pricing method of natural gas pipeline transportation. Firstly, based on the literature review, this paper analyzes the limitations of the current pricing mechanism of natural gas pipeline transportation in China. The complexity of the cost driver of natural gas pipeline transportation is discussed, and the concept of compound gas transportation rate is put forward. Secondly, it introduces the calculation method of natural gas pipeline transportation compound gas quantity, the collection of pipeline transportation cost and the regulation of pipeline transportation cost in the new policy of pipe transportation pricing of the National Development and Reform Commission. This paper makes an empirical test on the driving force of compound cost of natural gas pipeline transportation, and discusses the problem of target profit of pipeline transportation enterprises. Then, the disadvantages of the traditional pipeline pricing method based on the "price inversion algorithm" are analyzed. Based on the cost addition method, the natural gas pipeline pricing formula is derived. Furthermore, the gas pipeline pricing model based on compound cost state is established, and the parameters of the model are analyzed. Finally, taking the W Management Office of PetroChina Eastern Pipeline Co., Ltd as an example, the model is applied and the sensitivity analysis of the profit of the representative pipeline transportation station is carried out. The research results show that the current pipeline price in China is overvalued by more than 50%; Through the relationship between pipeline price and natural gas market sale price, the market price of natural gas pipeline is calculated, and an interval of this price is obtained, which is higher than the calculated price of pipeline transportation based on the rate of return on investment. Lower than the actual pipeline price; Among the factors that affect the profit of pipeline transportation, the sensitivity is in order from strong to weak as follows: unit price of pipeline transportation, compound gas quantity, fixed cost of pipeline transportation, variable cost of pipeline transportation. This model is of great value for reference and application. Pipeline enterprises should be on the alert and be prepared to keep or increase the profit in advance if the price of pipeline transportation may appear in the future.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.22

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