气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

发布时间：2018-04-14 17:18

本文选题：气候变化 + 跨境水资源　；参考：《气候变化研究进展》2018年01期

【摘要】：气候变化增加了国际河流冲突的可能性,加强跨境水资源适应性管理是流域国可持续发展的必然选择。梳理了适应性相关研究的国内外最新进展,认识到适应性管理的关键问题是要发展一套科学评估未来气候变化影响及适应性策略的程序。通过论述气候变化下跨境水资源的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,包括信息收集、需求分析、对策分析、综合评估以及实施与调控5个阶段。该项研究将适应性管理与气候变化、定量化脆弱性及适应能力关联评价、成本效益分析、多目标优化决策和动态调控等有机结合,为从跨界层面制定具有针对性的适应性管理对策提供了思路与方法,有利于促进国际河流流域可持续发展。
[Abstract]:Climate change increases the possibility of international river conflict, and strengthening the adaptive management of transboundary water resources is the inevitable choice for sustainable development of watershed countries.This paper reviews the latest development of adaptability research at home and abroad, and recognizes that the key problem of adaptive management is to develop a set of procedures for scientific assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in the future.By discussing the adaptive assessment and management framework of transboundary water resources under climate change, a decision assessment tool for climate change impact is proposed, which includes five stages: information collection, demand analysis, countermeasure analysis, comprehensive assessment, and implementation and control.The study combines adaptive management with climate change, quantitative vulnerability and adaptation correlation assessment, cost-benefit analysis, multi-objective optimal decision-making and dynamic regulation.It provides the train of thought and method for making the adaptive management countermeasure from the cross-boundary level, which is helpful to promote the sustainable development of international river basin.
【作者单位】：长江水利委员会长江科学院国际河流研究所;武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;水利部国际经济技术合作交流中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51279140) 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费资助项目(CKSF2017033/GJ)
【分类号】：P467;TV213

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