基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 16:18

本文选题：突发事件 + 情景-应对　；参考：《运筹与管理》2017年01期

【摘要】：为满足突发事件"情景-应对"的需要,提供具体、可实施的应急决策方案,提升决策的科学性,提出了一种基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法。首先,根据突发事件情景演变的特点,提出突发事件的情景表示方法,将应急决策方案引入情景表示中。然后,在情景表示的基础上进行情景检索,获取相似情景中的应急决策方案,将其进一步分解为承灾体的应急措施向量。依据承灾体的应急措施向量在相似情景中实施的效果,从损益值、后续影响两方面对承灾体的应急措施向量进行评价并排序,依据排序结果组成当前情景的应急决策方案,为应急情景决策提供具体的支持。最后,通过实例验证了该方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the need of emergency "situation-response", to provide concrete and implementable emergency decision making scheme and to improve the scientific nature of decision-making, a method of situational decision support based on emergency case is proposed. Firstly, according to the characteristics of the evolution of emergency scenarios, the method of scenario representation is proposed, and the emergency decision scheme is introduced into the scenario representation. Then, based on the scenario representation, the scene retrieval is carried out, and the emergency decision scheme in the similar scenario is obtained, which is further decomposed into the emergency response vector of the disaster bearing body. According to the effect of emergency response vector of disaster bearing body in similar situation, the emergency measure vector of disaster bearing body is evaluated and sorted from two aspects of profit and loss value and subsequent influence, and the emergency decision scheme of current situation is constituted according to the result of ranking. Provide specific support for emergency situation decision making. Finally, the feasibility of the method is verified by an example.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学管理科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373034)
【分类号】：D63;C934

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