案例驱动的CI系统应急能力不足评估方法
发布时间：2018-07-16 14:48
【摘要】：关键基础设施(Critical Infrastructure,CI)系统作为城市应急管理的重点,相应的应急能力需要得到有效保障。目前,相关研究主要关注于应急能力的整体评估,但其操作工作量较大且不易于快速有效地识别应急能力不足(Emergency Capability Shortage,ECS)。据此,阐述了案例驱动的CI系统应急能力不足评估方法,基于可用案例集和案例推理生成与约简应急能力不足清单后,分别计算模糊ECS值与区间ECS值,并以应急能力不足图谱表示应急能力不足的评估结果。该方法参照与利用历史案例,有利于解决评估缺乏关联性、针对性与预见性的问题。最后,通过在H市的案例分析来验证该方法的可行性与有效性。
[Abstract]:As the key point of urban emergency management, critical Infrastructure (CI) system needs to be effectively guaranteed. At present, the related researches mainly focus on the overall assessment of emergency capability, but its operational workload is large and it is difficult to identify the emergency capability shortage (ECS) quickly and effectively. On the basis of this, this paper expounds the method of evaluating the emergency ability of CI system driven by case. Based on the case set and case reasoning, the fuzzy ECS value and the interval ECS value are calculated, respectively, after generating and reducing the short list of emergency response ability, the fuzzy ECS value and the interval ECS value are calculated respectively. At the same time, the assessment results of the insufficiency of emergency ability are expressed by the map of emergency capability deficiency. By referring to and using historical cases, this method is helpful to solve the problem of lack of relevance, pertinence and predictability of evaluation. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by a case study in H City.
【作者单位】： 哈尔滨工业大学管理学院;中科信工程咨询(北京)有限责任公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(91024028,91024031,91324018);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172156,71473058)
【分类号】：C934
，
本文编号：2126721
[Abstract]:As the key point of urban emergency management, critical Infrastructure (CI) system needs to be effectively guaranteed. At present, the related researches mainly focus on the overall assessment of emergency capability, but its operational workload is large and it is difficult to identify the emergency capability shortage (ECS) quickly and effectively. On the basis of this, this paper expounds the method of evaluating the emergency ability of CI system driven by case. Based on the case set and case reasoning, the fuzzy ECS value and the interval ECS value are calculated, respectively, after generating and reducing the short list of emergency response ability, the fuzzy ECS value and the interval ECS value are calculated respectively. At the same time, the assessment results of the insufficiency of emergency ability are expressed by the map of emergency capability deficiency. By referring to and using historical cases, this method is helpful to solve the problem of lack of relevance, pertinence and predictability of evaluation. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by a case study in H City.
【作者单位】： 哈尔滨工业大学管理学院;中科信工程咨询(北京)有限责任公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目(91024028,91024031,91324018);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172156,71473058)
【分类号】：C934
，
本文编号：2126721
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