我国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的人口政策研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 13:56

本文关键词： “中等收入陷阱” 人力资本老龄化城镇化人口政策　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2010年,我国人均国民收入达到4340美元,被世界银行划为中高收入国家。近年来,我国经济增长放缓,经济发展进入调整转换期,原有的人力资源优势不断消失,劳动年龄人口占比下降、人口老龄化加速,人力资本积累不足等问题日益突出,使我国存在滑入“中等收入陷阱”的可能性。为此,有必要从理论上探讨人力资本、人口年龄结构、人口流动与“中等收入陷阱”的关系,并分析在现行政策下人口发展面临的问题对跨越“中等收入陷阱”形成的障碍,进而提出跨越“中等收入陷阱”的人口政策调整方向。经济发展步入中等收入阶段,人力资本积累有助于提高全要素生产率,并通过创新研发对经济增长发挥显著拉动作用;劳动年龄人口比重高但缓慢下降,将通过储蓄率与资本边际效率下降逐渐减弱对经济增长的贡献,人口老龄化加深会通过消费不足、劳动力参与率下降对经济增长带来不利影响;而城镇化有利于资源优化配置、缓解收入分配差距以及促进全要素生产率的提高。总体看,加快人力资本积累、适度人口城镇化将对跨越“中等收入陷阱”产生积极影响,劳动力供给减少以及人口老龄化将增加落入“中等收入陷阱”风险。从我国现行的计划生育政策、劳动力市场分割政策、人力资本投资、城镇化战略以及养老保险制度来看,这些政策在实施过程中,对人口发展形成了重要的影响,包括劳动力供给减少、人口年龄结构老化、就业歧视问题突出、人力资本积累不足、不完全城镇化、养老保险金收支不平衡且影响低收入人群再分配导致公平性不足,等等,这些问题成为我国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的障碍。针对现行政策下人口发展面临的问题对跨越“中等收入陷阱”形成的障碍因素,本文认为,应以改善人口年龄结构为目标适时调整生育政策,以促进劳动力资源优化配置为目标调整就业政策,以提高创新能力为目标促进人力资本投资,以大城市和城市群为主体推进新型城镇化,以促进公平为目标积极推进养老保险制度改革。
[Abstract]:In 2010, China's per capita national income reached US $4, 340, which was designated by the World Bank as a medium and high income country. In recent years, China's economic growth has slowed down, and its economic development has entered a period of adjustment and transformation. The original advantages of human resources continue to disappear, the proportion of working-age population is declining, the aging population is accelerating, the accumulation of human capital is insufficient and so on. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss theoretically the relationship between human capital, population age structure, population mobility and "middle income trap". It also analyzes the obstacles that the population development faces in the current policy to overcome the "middle-income trap". And then put forward the direction of population policy adjustment over the "middle income trap". The economic development steps into the middle income stage, the human capital accumulation helps to improve the total factor productivity. And through innovative research and development to play a significant role in economic growth; The high but slow decline of the working-age population will gradually weaken the contribution to economic growth through the decline of savings rate and marginal efficiency of capital, and the deepening of population aging will be through insufficient consumption. The decline in the labour force participation rate has a negative impact on economic growth; Urbanization is conducive to the optimal allocation of resources, ease the income distribution gap and promote the increase of total factor productivity. Overall, accelerate the accumulation of human capital. Moderate population urbanization will have a positive impact on crossing the "middle-income trap", and the reduction of labor supply and the aging of the population will increase the risk of falling into the "middle-income trap". Labor market segmentation policies, human capital investment, urbanization strategy and pension insurance system, these policies in the implementation process, has formed an important impact on population development, including the reduction of labor supply. The aging of population age structure, employment discrimination, insufficient accumulation of human capital, incomplete urbanization, unbalanced income and expenditure of pension insurance and impact on the redistribution of low-income people lead to lack of fairness, and so on. These problems have become the obstacle of our country to cross the "middle income trap". In view of the problem of population development under the current policy, the author thinks that the obstacle factor of crossing the "middle income trap" is caused by the problem that population development faces under the current policy. To improve the age structure of the population should be the goal of timely adjustment of fertility policy, to promote the optimal allocation of labor resources as the goal to adjust employment policies, with the aim of improving innovation capacity to promote human capital investment. Taking big cities and urban agglomerations as the main body to promote the new urbanization and to promote equity as the goal to actively promote the pension insurance system reform.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21

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