“全面二孩”政策与北京市学前教育资源需求

发布时间：2018-04-09 05:22

本文选题：“全面二孩”政策　切入点：人口预测　出处：《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年01期

【摘要】：随着"全面二孩"政策的实施,科学预测学龄前人口变动趋势和教育资源需求,对于学前教育的科学规划和深入改革发展具有紧迫的现实意义。作为全国教育首善之区,北京和谐发展的人口资源环境与长期以来极低的生育率并存,新生育政策调整后的人口变动趋势和教育资源需求预测具有特殊的研究意义。基于北京市第六次人口普查数据,采用中国人口预测系统,设置"全面二孩"政策低、中、高三种人口预测方案,分城乡对北京市2019—2029年的学前适龄人口和在园生规模进行预测,并根据人口预测结果和相应资源配置标准,分城乡推算2019—2029年的学前教育物力、人力和财力等三方面的资源需求,分析资源需求增量为现有存量带来的挑战。研究结果发现,学前适龄人口、在园生规模和学前教育资源需求在2023或2024年将相应到达峰值,此后将平稳回落,而现有学前教育物力资源、人力资源和财力资源均无法满足未来需求,为此须科学制定学前教育的未来发展规划。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the policy of "all-around two-child", it is of urgent practical significance to forecast the trend of preschool population change and the demand of educational resources for the scientific planning of preschool education and the further reform and development of preschool education.As the first and best area of education in China, the harmonious development of population resources and environment in Beijing coexist with the very low fertility rate for a long time. The trend of population change and the forecast of demand for educational resources after the adjustment of new fertility policy are of special significance.Based on the data from the sixth Beijing population Census, and using the Chinese population forecasting system, a "comprehensive two-child" policy of low, middle and high three population forecasting schemes has been set up.The pre-school age population and the scale of students in the garden in Beijing for 2019-2029 are predicted by urban and rural areas, and the pre-school education resources for 2019-2029 are calculated in urban and rural areas according to the population forecast results and corresponding resource allocation criteria.Human and financial resource needs are analyzed, and the challenges brought by the increment of resource demand to the existing stock are analyzed.The results show that the size of preschool students and the demand for preschool education resources will peak in 2023 or 2024, and will drop steadily thereafter.Human resources and financial resources can not meet the future needs, so we must scientifically formulate the future development plan of preschool education.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学教育学部;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助北京市教育科学规划重点课题(优先关注)(ACA14103)
【分类号】：G619.2

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