我国主要城市的房地产泡沫研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 11:24

本文关键词：我国主要城市的房地产泡沫研究　出处：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自住房体制改革以来,我国的房地产业发展迅猛,带动了诸多关联产业的发展、解决了大量的就业、改善了城市的居住环境,但随之而来的是不断高涨的房价。房价已经超出了普通居民的购买能力,从而导致了一系列的社会问题,也引起了全社会的关注。整个社会都在热烈地讨论房地产泡沫是否存在,而与此同时,逐步加码的调控措施也是相继出台,然而房价越调越高,在这样的背景下对于我国的房地产市场进行研究分析,测度是否存在着泡沫并提出针对我国房地产市场的政策建议有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于我国房地产市场的现状以及测度房地产泡沫方法的优劣,决定采用三大指标(房价收入比、房地产开发投资总额与GDP增长率之比、住宅商品房销售面积与住宅商品房竣工面积之比)作为本文进行泡沫测度的指标。本文根据历年的统计数据来计算历年的指标值,利用指标数值来测度整体房地产市场。本文分析的结果表明近年来整体房地产存在着不同程度的泡沫。考虑到我国不同地区存在很大的差异性,为了使得本文的研究更具现实意义,本文将我国的主要城市分为A、B、C三类,这种分类主要依据城市的经济发展水平。根据历年的城市统计数据进行指标分析,结果显示A、B、C三类城市在2005-2010年都存在着不同程度的泡沫,而在2010年之后A类和B类城市的房地产市场很健康没有泡沫,C类城市的房地产市场依然存在着泡沫。本文根据我国的国情,从市场因素、制度因素和社会因素三个方面深入分析了我国房地产市场泡沫的形成原因,并且根据我国的国情提出了政策建议,这些政策建议涉及到土地出让制度改革、税制改革、保障房制度的完善、金融监管、投资渠道的拓展、流动性过剩的抑制、针对C类城市的房地产调控。希望本文对于我国整体房地产市场泡沫和主要城市房地产泡沫的研究分析以及政策建议能够对保持房地产业健康发展和抑制房地产泡沫起到一定的作用。
[Abstract]:Since the housing system reform, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly, which has led to the development of many related industries, solved a large number of employment, and improved the living environment of the city. But then came rising house prices, which were beyond the ability of ordinary residents to buy, leading to a series of social problems. The whole society has also aroused the concern of the whole society. The whole society is discussing the existence of the real estate bubble or not, and at the same time, the adjustment and control measures have been introduced gradually, but the housing prices are higher and higher. In this context, the real estate market in China is studied and analyzed. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to measure whether there is a bubble and put forward some policy suggestions for China's real estate market. This paper is based on the current situation of China's real estate market and the merits and demerits of the method of measuring the real estate bubble. It is decided to adopt three indicators (the ratio of house price to income, the ratio of total investment in real estate development and GDP growth rate). The ratio of the sale area of the commercial housing to the completed area of the house is taken as the index of bubble measurement in this paper. The index value of the calendar year is calculated according to the statistical data of the past years. Using the index value to measure the overall real estate market. The results of this paper show that there are different degrees of bubbles in the whole real estate in recent years. In order to make the study of this paper more practical significance, the main cities of our country are divided into three categories: Agni Bang C. This classification is mainly based on the level of economic development of the city. Three types of cities had different degrees of bubbles in 2005-2010, but after 2010, the real estate market of A and B cities was healthy and did not have a bubble. There is still a bubble in the real estate market of class C. according to the national conditions of our country, this paper analyzes the causes of the bubble in the real estate market from three aspects: market factor, institutional factor and social factor. And according to the national conditions of our country put forward policy recommendations, these policy recommendations related to land transfer system reform, tax reform, indemnificatory apartment system improvement, financial supervision, investment channels to expand. The suppression of excess liquidity. It is hoped that the research and analysis of the real estate bubble in the whole real estate market and the real estate bubble in the major cities in this paper and the policy suggestions can help maintain the healthy development of the real estate industry and restrain the real estate industry. Bubbles play a role.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

【相似文献】