国际资本流动对我国价格水平影响的研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 00:03

本文关键词：国际资本流动对我国价格水平影响的研究　出处：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的不断深入，国际资本流动活动于各大资本市场之中，其规模日益壮大，速度不断加剧。国际资本流动能在国际间调剂资本的余缺，达到资本合理有效配置，对世界经济发展起着重大的作用。近年来，我国也逐渐放宽对国际资本流动的限制，通过提供便利安全的投资环境招商引资，带动经济发展。另一方面，伴随着我国经济的高速发展和人民币升值的强烈预期，越来越多的国际买家将目光投向中国市场。但需要注意的是，国际资本流动对一国经济来说是一把双刃剑，它在促进经济蓬勃发展的同时，也提高了经济波动的风险，加大了宏观调控的难度。因此，充分认识国际资本流动对我国经济影响的意义重大，它不仅有助于合理把控我国资本市场的开放进程，同时，也为妥善应对国际资本流动所带来的危机提供思路。本文选取价格水平作为研究方向，试图从国际资本流动对我国价格水平的影响这一层面展开分析，意图为推动人民币的国际化进程、建立健全的外汇管理和资本管制制度提供政策性意见，为相关部门制定政策提供依据。本文主要分为三个部分，首先基于理论模型，从商品市场和资本市场两个方面，分析国际资本流动对价格水平的影响及其渠道。对商品市场来说，国际资本流动主要通过基础货币渠道和国内资金配套渠道，影响商品市场的供求关系，从而推动价格的变化。而对于资本市场来说，国际资本流动不仅可以通过货币供应量的增加，改变资本供求关系从而影响资本市场的价格，同时也会通过降低融资成本，扩大实体经济规模的形式支持资本市场价格的上涨。其后，本文选取居民消费价格指数、上证综指的环比指数和房地产消费价格指数作为价格水平的衡量标准，通过建立线性回归模型，发现国际资本流动对我国价格水平的影响程度并不高，其中，对房地产市场的影响相对显著。为分析各变量之间的动态关系，本文以国际资本流动、居民消费价格指数和房地产消费价格指数为变量，建立VAR模型，并对模型进行脉冲响应和方差分解，结果显示房地产消费价格指数和居民消费价格指数，在受到国际资本流动冲击时，，都会产生正向的响应，这种响应都有时滞并伴随着振荡调整，最终会随着时间逐渐消失，其中房地产市场受国际资本流动的影响程度更高，作用效果也更为明显。最后，基于前文理论和实证分析结果，得出本文结论，并根据结论给出建设性意见。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, international capital flow activities in the major capital markets, its scale is growing, the speed is increasing, international capital flows can adjust the international capital in the remaining and lacking. To achieve a reasonable and effective allocation of capital plays an important role in the development of the world economy. In recent years, China has also gradually relaxed the restrictions on international capital flows, by providing a convenient and safe investment environment to attract investment. On the other hand, with the rapid development of China's economy and the strong expectation of RMB appreciation, more and more international buyers are looking to the Chinese market. International capital flow is a double-edged sword for a country's economy. It not only promotes the vigorous development of economy, but also raises the risk of economic fluctuation and increases the difficulty of macro-control. Therefore, it is of great significance to fully understand the impact of international capital flows on China's economy, which is not only conducive to the rational control of the opening process of China's capital market, but also at the same time. This paper chooses the price level as the research direction and tries to analyze the impact of international capital flow on the price level of our country. It is intended to provide policy advice for promoting the internationalization of RMB and establishing a sound system of foreign exchange management and capital control, and to provide the basis for relevant departments to formulate policies. This paper is mainly divided into three parts. Firstly, based on the theoretical model, this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flow on the price level and its channels from the two aspects of commodity market and capital market. The international capital flow mainly through the basic monetary channel and the domestic capital supporting channel, affects the commodity market supply and demand relations, thus impels the price change, but for the capital market. International capital flow can not only change the relationship between supply and demand of capital through the increase of money supply, but also reduce the cost of financing. The expansion of the size of the real economy supports the rise in capital market prices. Then, this paper selects the consumer price index, the ring index of Shanghai Composite Index and the real estate consumer price index as the measure of price level, through the establishment of a linear regression model. It is found that the impact of international capital flow on China's price level is not high, among which, the impact on the real estate market is relatively significant. In order to analyze the dynamic relationship between the variables, this paper uses the international capital flow. The VAR model is established by using the consumer price index and the real estate consumption price index as variables, and the impulse response and variance decomposition of the model are carried out. The results show that the real estate consumer price index and the resident consumption price index. In the impact of international capital flows, there will be a positive response, this response has time delay and oscillatory adjustment, and eventually will gradually disappear with the time. Among them, the real estate market is more affected by the international capital flow, and the effect is more obvious. Finally, based on the previous theory and empirical analysis results, this paper draws a conclusion, and gives constructive suggestions according to the conclusion.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.7;F726;F224

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