中国商品住宅市场的投资性需求分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 21:08

本文关键词：中国商品住宅市场的投资性需求分析　出处：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自上世纪90年代末住房制度改革以来，中国房地产市场得以蓬勃发展。特别是2004年以后，商品住宅价格持续快速飙升，尽管国家出台了多轮次、力度不断升级的房地产调控政策和税收政策，但房地产市场依然长期处于一个“价涨量增”的态势。房地产市场的欣欣向荣，对于拉动国民经济发挥了举足轻重的作用。然而，住房作为一种具有强烈投资品属性的特殊消费品，近年来，特别是在中国的一、二线城市，其所形成的投资性需求已经超过消费性需求，成为房地产市场总需求的主导因素，也成为房价持续高涨的重要推手。房价上涨过快，会对居民生活消费形成“挤出效应”，严重影响社会经济的和谐稳定发展。还会诱导社会资金大量涌入房地产市场，形成房地产泡沫，损害其他实体行业的发展。因此，在中共中央全面实施“十二五”房地产规划的阶段，，抑制投资性需求，调整住房需求结构的同时，促进房价合理回归成为当前住房规划的首要任务。本文拟从人口因素的角度出发，结合普通居民的传统储蓄习惯，通过研究城镇居民对住房的消费性需求，来间接的估算过去十年中国房地产市场上存在的投资性需求，以期对房地产金融业务实践提供理论和数据支持。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system at the end of -10s, China's real estate market has been booming. Especially since 2004, commodity housing prices have continued to surge rapidly, despite the introduction of multiple rounds. But the real estate market is still in a "price increase" situation for a long time, and the real estate market is booming. However, housing as a special consumer goods with strong investment attributes, especially in China's first and second tier cities in recent years. The investment demand has exceeded the consumption demand, which has become the dominant factor of the total demand in the real estate market and an important driving force for the sustained rise of house prices. If the house price rises too fast, it will form the "crowding out effect" to the resident's life consumption, and will seriously affect the harmonious and stable development of the social economy. It will also induce the social funds to pour into the real estate market in large quantities, and form the real estate bubble. Therefore, in the period of the CPC Central Committee's comprehensive implementation of the "12th Five-Year Plan" real estate planning, to curb investment demand and adjust the structure of housing demand at the same time. To promote the reasonable return of housing prices has become the primary task of current housing planning. This paper, from the perspective of population factors, combined with the traditional savings habits of ordinary residents, through the study of urban residents' consumer demand for housing. To indirectly estimate the investment demand in China's real estate market in the past decade, in order to provide theoretical and data support for the real estate financial business practice.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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