郑州市银行房地产信贷与房地产价格关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 08:21

本文关键词：郑州市银行房地产信贷与房地产价格关系研究　出处：《兰州商学院》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1998年我国实行房地产市场改革以来，房地产业得到了长足的发展，，并且对国民经济的提升起到了重要的推动作用。在全国各地房价增长猛进的同时，郑州市作为中部地区的一个重要省会城市，房地产市场也得到了迅速发展，此外也带动了众多相关产业的快速发展，为社会经济的发展做出了突出贡献。作为资金密集型的行业，房地产的资金来源很大程度上得益于银行信贷的大力支持；然而，当金融过度支持时就可能导致房价的持续上涨，超过居民的购房能力，并最终将可能导致房地产泡沫的产生。众多研究表明，房地产市场发展与银行信贷的金融支持有着密切的关系。基于此，本文利用郑州市2003-2012年的季度数据对银行信贷和房地产价格波动之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证分析结果表明，银行信贷和房地产价格存在协整关系，两者之间存在长期均衡，并且银行信贷是房地产价格波动的格兰杰原因。由此可以得出以下结论：银行信贷规模的扩大会助推房地产价格的上涨，反之，不然。因此为了将房价控制在合理的范围内，维护郑州市房地产市场的健康发展，本文提出了几点建议：强化银行房地产信贷监管；严密监控房地产市场发展动向；合理调整房地产信贷结构；完善融资方式，增加融资渠道等来引导房地产行业的健康发展。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, the real estate market reform has been implemented in China, the real estate industry has been a considerable development, and has played an important role in the promotion of the national economy, while the rapid growth of housing prices throughout the country at the same time. Zhengzhou as an important provincial capital city in the central region, the real estate market has also been rapid development, in addition to the rapid development of many related industries. As a capital-intensive industry, the capital source of real estate is largely supported by bank credit. However, when financial support is excessive, it may lead to a sustained rise in house prices, exceeding residents' ability to buy homes, and may eventually lead to a real estate bubble. Many studies show that the development of the real estate market is closely related to the financial support of bank credit. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between bank credit and real estate price volatility using the quarterly data of Zhengzhou from 2003 to 2012. There is a cointegration relationship between bank credit and real estate prices, and there is a long-term equilibrium between the two. And the bank credit is the Granger reason of the real estate price fluctuation. From this we can draw the following conclusion: the expansion of bank credit scale will help the real estate price to rise, vice versa. Therefore, in order to control house prices within a reasonable range and maintain the healthy development of Zhengzhou real estate market, this paper puts forward several suggestions: strengthening bank real estate credit supervision; Closely monitor the development trend of the real estate market; Reasonable adjustment of real estate credit structure; Improve financing methods and increase financing channels to guide the healthy development of the real estate industry.
【学位授予单位】：兰州商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.45;F299.23

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