山东省城镇居民住房支付能力研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 01:25

本文关键词：山东省城镇居民住房支付能力研究　出处：《青岛理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文研究了山东省城镇居民对新建商品住房的支付能力。首先通过文献综述了解国内外住房支付能力研究现状，分析衡量住房支付能力常用指标及适用范围。然后从供需状况上对山东省住宅市场发展现状与存在的问题进行探讨。最后采用定性与定量相结合的方法对山东省城镇居民住房支付能力进行实证分析。采用合适的衡量指标从历史变动、社会差距、区域差异三个角度对山东省城镇居民的住房支付能力进行系统分析，并通过PIR计量模型简单预测未来5年内城镇居民住房支付能力的变化趋势。结果表明：（1）根据PIR和HAI指标的测算，从整体上来看，山东省城镇居民住房支付能力高于全国平均水平，具备一定的购房能力；（2）采用静态PIR、动态PIR和剩余收入法全面分析住房支付能力存在的社会差距，综合结果得出不同收入户间住房支付能力差距悬殊：高收入户及最高收入户支付能力很强，可以购买市场上提供的任何新建类型住宅；较高收入户对70m2、90m2的套房面积有支付能力；中间及较低收入户可以借助金融工具购买70m2的新建商品住宅；最低及低收入户基本上不具备购买市场上新建商品住宅的能力。（3）通过计算PIR，各城市居民住房支付能力存在较大差异，，大体上呈现中西部地区住房支付能力最好，其次是沿海城市，再次是济南、青岛。（4）未来5年内房价涨幅若控制在居民收入增长速度之内，居民将具备较好的住房支付能力。考虑到住房支付能力影响因素的复杂性，运用因子分析法建立在综合影响因素下山东省城镇居民住房支付能力区域差异的计量评价模型。结果表明，各地区住房支付能力综合排名与衡量指标测算的结果大体相一致，因子得分排名则反映了不同地区受各因子影响程度不同，要根据具体情况进一步落实区域差异化的房地产调控。最后，文章结合影响山东省城镇居民住房支付能力的因素提出了增加住房供给；完善住房供应体系；稳定住房价格，增加城镇居民收入；规范使用金融工具等建议。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the urban residents in Shandong Province, the ability to pay for new housing. First understand the research status at home and abroad the ability to pay the housing through literature review, analysis and measure of housing affordability index and applicable scope. Then from the supply and demand situation of Shandong Province, the residential market development present situation and the existing problems are discussed. Finally, the method of qualitative analysis and the combination of quantitative empirical analysis of Shandong province urban residents housing affordability.
The appropriate measure from the historical changes, social gap, three aspects of the regional differences of Shandong province housing affordability of urban residents are analyzed, and the changing trend of PIR simple econometric model to predict the future 5 years of urban residents housing affordability. The results showed that: (1) according to PIR and HAI index, on the whole, housing affordability of urban residents in Shandong province is higher than the national average, have a certain ability to purchase; (2) using static PIR, overall analysis of the existing housing affordability of social gap between dynamic PIR and residual income method, the comprehensive results of different income housing affordability gap between households and high-income households. The highest income households pay ability is very strong, can any new types of residential purchase on the market; the higher income households on the 70m2,90m2 suite area have the ability to pay; and between low New residential income households can buy with financial instruments 70m2; minimum and low income households basically do not have on the market to buy new residential capacity. (3) through the calculation of PIR, the city residents housing affordability has great differences, generally presents the Midwest housing affordability is best, followed by the coastal city. Once again, Ji'nan, Qingdao. (4) the next 5 years if prices rose in control of income growth, residents will have better housing affordability.
Considering the complexity of the factors affecting the housing affordability, using the factor analysis method based on comprehensive influencing factors of urban residents in Shandong province to pay housing measurement ability evaluation of regional differences in the model. The results show that the areas of housing payment ability and comprehensive ranking index estimates are consistent in general, factor score rankings reflect different affected areas the degree of each factor is different to the real estate regulation according to the specific circumstances of the further implementation of regional differences.
Finally, combined with the factors that influence the housing payment capacity of urban residents in Shandong Province, the article puts forward suggestions to increase housing supply, improve housing supply system, stabilize housing prices, increase urban residents' income, and standardize the use of financial instruments.

【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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