我国不同收入户水平下的房地产财富效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 01:33

本文关键词：我国不同收入户水平下的房地产财富效应分析　出处：《华中师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来随着全球资产市场的起伏变化,资产价格的波动与居民消费之间的关系受到了学界的关注,资产价格波动引发居民消费支出的变化已成为国际经济学界尤其是宏观政策研究的一个重点。房产作为家庭的大宗财富,也是居民家庭的重要消费支出。随着房地产的投资属性的逐步显现,其价格的波动势必会对居民及宏观经济的产生十分显著的影响。国外对财富效应理论的研究比较早,理论也在不断发展之中。我国房地产市场是个新兴市场。自1998年实行住房体制改革以来,住房市场发展迅速,住宅商品房投资额和销售额占国民收入的比重呈逐年提高的趋势,并逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业。截止2012年,全国完成房地产开发投资36232亿元,相对于1998年的3614亿元,增长了9倍。全国住宅销售面从1998年的10827.10万m3提高到2012年的96528.41万m3,全国住房平均销售价格也从1854元／m3上涨到4993元m3。但与此相伴,居民收入的增长却不及住房价格的增长速度,住房问题逐渐成为社会难题。由于住房消费的大幅增加挤占其他社会生活消费品的消费空间,消费能力低迷也已成为制约我国经济结构转型和可持续发展的突出问题之一。房价持续上涨,对经济发展和财政收入做出了重要贡献,但持续的过热也给社会经济发展带来了诸多负面影响。党的十八大也将着力提高居民消费能力和消费水平作为政府工作的重要内容。因此本文通过在将住宅类型分类的基础上,尝试对住房消费人群进行区分,从不同收入角度研究房地产财富效应,以期对居民的住房和消费政策的有一些启发。本文共分为五章：在回顾国内外学者关于股市和房地产财富效应的相关研究成果的基础上,回顾了财富理论的发展历史及财富效应的传导机制,然后运用财富模型对我国近些年的统计数据进行实证研究,研究结果表明：我国房地产市场的财富效应总体不明显,其中高档住房的财富效应为负值,是造成整个房地产市场财富效应不明显的主要原因。影响我国消费需求的主导作用是居民收入水平,因此只有稳定居民收入预期,不断提高居民收入水平才是促进我国消费增长的根本途径。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the ups and downs of the global asset market, the relationship between the fluctuation of asset prices and residents' consumption has attracted the attention of scholars. The change of consumer expenditure caused by the fluctuation of asset price has become a key point in the international economic circle, especially in the macro-policy research. Real estate as a large wealth of households. Is also an important consumer expenditure of households. With the property of real estate investment gradually appear. The fluctuation of its price is bound to have a very significant impact on the residents and the macro-economy. The theory of wealth effect has been studied early in foreign countries and the theory is developing constantly. The real estate market of our country is a new market. Since the reform of housing system in 1998, the housing market has developed rapidly, and the proportion of investment and sales of commercial housing in national income has been increasing year by year. And gradually become the pillar industry of the national economy. By 2012, the whole country completed the real estate development investment of three tillion six hundred and twenty-three billion two hundred million yuan, compared with 361.4 billion yuan in 1998. The national residential sales area increased from one hundred and eight million two hundred and seventy-one thousand m3 in 1998 to nine hundred and sixty-five million two hundred and eighty-four thousand and one hundred m3 in 2012. The national average sales price of housing has also risen from 1854 yuan / m3 to 4993 yuan / m3, but with this, the income of the residents has not increased as fast as the housing price. The housing problem has gradually become a social problem. Because of the large increase of housing consumption, it occupies the consumption space of other consumer goods of social life. The low consumption ability has also become one of the outstanding problems that restrict the economic structure transformation and sustainable development of our country. The house price continues to rise, which has made important contribution to the economic development and the financial revenue. However, the persistent overheating has also brought many negative effects to the social and economic development. The 18 National Congress of the Communist Party of China will also focus on improving the residents' consumption ability and consumption level as an important part of the government's work. On the basis of classification. This paper tries to distinguish the housing consumers and study the wealth effect of real estate from different income points in order to enlighten the residents' housing and consumption policies. This paper is divided into five chapters: on the basis of reviewing the domestic and foreign scholars on the stock market and real estate wealth effect related research results, reviewed the wealth theory development history and wealth effect transmission mechanism. Then we use the wealth model to carry on the empirical research to the statistics data of our country in recent years, the research result shows: the wealth effect of the real estate market in our country is not obvious in the whole, the wealth effect of the upscale housing is negative value. It is the main reason that the wealth effect of the whole real estate market is not obvious. The leading effect of affecting the consumption demand of our country is the income level of the residents, so it is only to stabilize the income expectation of the residents. To improve the income level of residents is the fundamental way to promote the growth of consumption in China.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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