福泉厦住宅市场价格泡沫程度实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 21:13

本文关键词：福泉厦住宅市场价格泡沫程度实证研究　出处：《华侨大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业是我国国民经济支柱产业，房地产市场能否健康发展深刻影响整个经济体系运行。1998年住房分配改革以后全国范围内房价普涨，部分城市涨幅之大之快强烈刺激着人们的神经，不少学者认为我国房地产市场已经出现泡沫。历史上多次房价泡沫崩溃事件时刻提醒我们应警惕房地产泡沫产生和膨胀,并尽量防止房地产泡沫破裂。由于房地产市场存在区域差异，国家整体范围内的平稳不能代表地区的平稳，因此本文选择福建省三大城市福州、泉州、厦门进行城市层面的具体考察。房地产包括住宅、办公楼、商业营业用房等，住宅是其中最重要的一部分且直接关系到国计民生，因此本文将住宅市场作为研究对象。实证检验使用年度数据，时间范围为1999~2012年。文章在参考前人研究成果的基础上首先给出房地产泡沫的定义并对其进行了理论上的分析；对福泉厦三市基本情况简要说明之后，选取6个指标分析了各市住宅市场热度；接着进行变量序列平稳性检验和协整检验，并在此基础上建立表示住宅市场供、需的状态空间模型，采用卡尔曼滤波估计系数并计算住宅基础价值，随后求出住宅实际价格对基础价值的偏移率；最后通过检验偏移率的平稳性来判断泡沫是否存在，，若存在，泡沫程度即为偏移率的值。指标分析结果表明，福州、厦门房地产市场过热，有可能已经出现房地产泡沫；泉州热度相对较低，但也存在出现泡沫的可能。进一步实证检验结果显示三市住宅市场均已出现不同程度的价格泡沫：福州市在2000~2006年间住宅价格被低估，2007年起开始出现泡沫并持续扩张，2007~2012年间泡沫均值为31.65%；泉州市泡沫程度始终比较温和，十三年间泡沫均值为8.8%；厦门市泡沫程度最为严重，十三年间均值达到103.97%。文章根据各市具体情况和住宅市场发展特征对价格泡沫进行了分析解读并在最后提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our national economy. Whether the real estate market can develop healthily or not will deeply affect the operation of the whole economic system. The rapid increase in some cities strongly stimulates people's nerves. Many scholars believe that there has been a bubble in the real estate market in China. Many times in the history of housing bubble collapse events remind us that we should be on guard against the emergence and expansion of the real estate bubble and try to prevent the real estate bubble from bursting. Because there are regional differences in the real estate market, the overall stability of the country can not represent the stability of the region, so this paper chooses the three cities of Fujian Province Fuzhou, Quanzhou. Xiamen carries on the city level concrete inspection. The real estate includes the residence, the office building, the commercial business room and so on, the residence is one of the most important parts and directly relates to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Therefore, this paper takes the housing market as the research object. The empirical test uses annual data. The time range is from 1999 to 2012. Based on the previous research results, this paper first gives the definition of real estate bubble and analyzes it theoretically. After briefly explaining the basic situation of three cities of Fuquan and Xiamen, this paper selects 6 indexes to analyze the heat of housing market in each city. Then, the stationary test and cointegration test of variable sequence are carried out, and on this basis, the state space model is established to represent the supply and demand of housing market, and the Kalman filter is used to estimate the coefficient and calculate the value of housing foundation. Then the deviation rate of the real house price to the basic value is obtained. Finally, the existence of foam is judged by checking the smoothness of migration rate, and if it exists, the degree of foam is the value of migration rate. The result of the index analysis shows that the real estate market in Fuzhou and Xiamen is overheated and there may be a real estate bubble. The heat of Quanzhou is relatively low. But there is also the possibility of bubble. Further empirical test results show that the three cities housing market has appeared different degrees of price bubble: Fuzhou City in 20002006 housing prices are undervalued. In 2007, bubbles began to appear and continued to expand. The average value of bubbles in 2007 and 2012 was 31.65; The degree of foam in Quanzhou was always mild, and the average value of bubble was 8.8% in 13 years. The degree of foam in Xiamen is the most serious. The average value reached 103.97 in 13. According to the specific situation of each city and the characteristics of housing market development, this paper analyzes and interprets the price bubble and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions at the end.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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