城镇化、区域发展不均衡与房地产价格

发布时间：2018-01-11 16:31

本文关键词：城镇化、区域发展不均衡与房地产价格　出处：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：现阶段,城镇化和由于区域发展不均衡所引起的人口流动对我国房价影响显著,但现有文献对该问题较少涉及,本文针对该问题进行了研究。本文首先分别从房地产市场的需求和供给出发建立模型,推导出均衡房价的决定方程,从理论上推演了各省份农村居民和外省份人口需求对本省份城镇房价的影响。在此基础上,本文对我国各省份城镇化和区域间人口流动对房价的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现:我国居民收入的提高、快速发展的城镇化进程和由于收入、福利以及基础设施在区域间分布的不均衡而引起的人口跨区域流动都在很大程度上推高了我国房价;后两者是我国房价收入比与发达国家相比偏高于发达国家的重要原因;城镇化和跨区域人口流动是我国东部地区房价上涨和房价收入比扩大的主要动力,但跨区域人口流动在中部地区,以及城镇化在西部地区对二者的影响均不显著。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, urbanization and population mobility caused by uneven regional development have a significant impact on house prices in China, but the existing literature on this issue is less involved. This paper studies this problem. Firstly, this paper establishes the model from the demand and supply of the real estate market, and deduces the determinant equation of the equilibrium house price. Theoretically, it deduces the influence of the rural residents and the population demand of other provinces on the housing prices of the cities and towns in our province. On this basis. This paper makes an empirical test on the impact of urbanization and inter-regional population mobility on housing prices in various provinces of China. The study finds that: the increase of residents' income, the rapid development of urbanization process and income due to income. Welfare and the uneven distribution of infrastructure in the inter-regional distribution of the population caused by the cross-regional mobility are to a large extent pushed up the housing prices in China; The latter two are the important reason why the ratio of house price to income of our country is higher than that of the developed country. Urbanization and cross-regional population mobility are the main driving force for the rise of house prices and the expansion of the price-to-income ratio in the eastern part of China, but the cross-regional population mobility is in the central region. And urbanization in the western region of the impact of both are not significant.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学商学院;中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;北京理工大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71302156) 北京市青年英才计划中国人民大学校内基金(15XNB015)的资助
【分类号】：F124;F299.2
【正文快照】： *孟庆斌、黄清华,中国人民大学商学院,邮政编码:100872,电子信箱:mengqingbin@rbs.org.cn;张能鲲,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;张永冀,北京理工大学经济管理学院。本文得到国家自然科学基金(71302156)、北京市青年英才计划和中国人民大学校内基金(15XNB015)的资助,感谢匿名

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