防范QE退出对楼市的冲击

发布时间：2018-01-13 04:29

本文关键词：防范QE退出对楼市的冲击　出处：《中国金融》2014年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：正2013年6月以来,美国量化宽松货币政策(QE)逐渐退出的预期在加强,2014年1月的美联储会议再次强化了该预期,按照该会议的精神,美联储未来将逐步缩减债券购买规模,按照每个月减少100亿美元的计划,半年后美联储将中止购买债券的行为。美国退出QE对全球金融市场的影响已经显现,不少新兴市场国家出现了货币贬值、资本外逃、股价下跌等不良反应。尽管美国货币政策调整对中国的影响暂时还没有显现出来,但中长期影响不可忽视。最需要关注的是中国内地和香港的房地产市场,笔者认为,QE政策退出可能会导致内地和香港房价、地价持续下跌,从而引发商业银行不良率上升及其他金融"次生灾害"。
[Abstract]:Since June 2013, the prospect of a gradual withdrawal of the US quantitative easing monetary policy has been strengthened, and the January 2014 Fed meeting reinforced that expectation again, in accordance with the spirit of the meeting. The Fed will gradually scale back its bond purchases in the future, with a $10 billion monthly cut. Half a year later, the Fed will stop buying bonds. The impact of the US withdrawal from QE on global financial markets is already evident, with many emerging market countries experiencing currency depreciation and capital flight. Although the impact of the US monetary policy adjustment on China has not been revealed for the time being, the medium- and long-term impact should not be ignored. The most important concern is the real estate markets in mainland China and Hong Kong. The author thinks that the exit of QE policy may lead to house prices in the mainland and Hong Kong, and the land price will continue to fall, which will lead to the rise of the bad rate of commercial banks and other financial "secondary disasters".
【作者单位】：华中科技大学公共管理学院;中国社会科学院金融研究所;
【分类号】：F293.3;F827.12
【正文快照】： 2013年6月以来,美国量化宽松货初,美国为了遏制严重的通货膨胀,将国”,中国成了主角。币政策(QE)逐渐退出的预期在利率提高到接近20%的水平,导致实业资当然,中国在迅速成为“世界工厂”加强,2014年1月的美联储会议再次强化本大量流入日本和“亚洲四小龙”,使的同时,也出现房

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