基于COX模型的我国房地产上市公司财务困境预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 11:40

本文关键词：基于COX模型的我国房地产上市公司财务困境预警研究　出处：《西北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国的房地产行业经过十几年的市场化发展,已经形成了规模化的房地产上市公司,而房地产行业本身又具有周期长、高投资、高风险、关联性强等诸多特点,其本身就是舆论关注的焦点,特别是近年来对房地产行业的宏观和微观的调控,使得该行业的上市公司隐含着相应的财务风险,对这些财务风险的正确预警和解决将关系到该行业和国民经济能否健康稳定的发展。本文回顾了国内外有关财务困境预警的研究,通过合理分析房地产行业的特点来挖掘房地产上市公司的风险来源,从而通过选择我国上市房地产公司作为样本来构建符合该行业特征的财务风险预警评价指标体系。根据样本数据,笔者通过Mann-Whitney U非参数检验和Pearson相关性检验对财务指标数据进行预处理,并将预处理后的数据进行实证分析,考虑到动态性原则,本文采用了生存分析中的Cox模型来拟合多个时间段的样本数据,这样可以防止单期模型所不能反映公司财务状况趋势性信息的缺陷。经过分析发现,资产负债率、流动比率、已获利息倍数、总资产增长率、总资产净利率、销售净利率这六个指标能够对我国上市房地产公司陷入财务困境做出较好的预警,进而对这些指标的现实经济意义做出合理解释,并提出相应的政策建议。本文的具体内容分为六个章节：第一章绪论,基于选题背景,提出本文研究的主要问题,并对Cox模型、财务困境预警以及基于Cox模型的财务困境预警的国内外研究现状作文献综述,最后确定本文研究框架及创新点。第二章相关基础理论研究,通过分析公司治理理论、生存分析理论、生命周期理论以及财务预警理论,指出生存分析的Cox模型应用于财务困境预警的适用性和优越性。第三章房地产企业财务困境,主要分析房地产整个行业财务困境即将来临,显示出本文研究的巨大现时意义。第四章Cox模型的财务指标设计,全面、系统、科学地选取适用于我国房地产业财务困境预警的财务指标。第五章Cox模型在我国房地产业的财务困境预警应用研究,构建了适合我国房地产业财务困境预警的Cox模型,通过实证结果分析为我国房地产企业财务困境预警指出明路。第六章研究结论与局限。
[Abstract]:After more than ten years of market-oriented development, China's real estate industry has formed a large-scale real estate listed companies, and the real estate industry itself has a long period, high investment, high risk, strong relevance and many other characteristics. It itself is the focus of public opinion, especially in recent years on the real estate industry macro and micro regulation, so that the listed companies in this industry implied the corresponding financial risks. The correct early warning and solution of these financial risks will affect the healthy and stable development of the industry and the national economy. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign financial distress early warning research, through the reasonable analysis of the characteristics of the real estate industry to explore the real estate listed companies risk sources. By selecting the listed real estate companies as samples, we can construct the financial risk early-warning evaluation index system according to the characteristics of the industry. According to the sample data. The author preprocesses the financial index data by Mann-Whitney U non-parametric test and Pearson correlation test, and makes empirical analysis of the pre-treated data. Considering the dynamic principle, the Cox model of survival analysis is used to fit the sample data of multiple time periods. This can prevent the single period model can not reflect the trend of the company's financial situation information defects. Through analysis, it is found that the asset-liability ratio, current ratio, interest multiple, total asset growth rate, total net interest rate of assets. The six indicators of net interest rate of sales can give a good warning to the financial distress of listed real estate companies in China, and then make a reasonable explanation for the realistic economic significance of these indicators. The specific contents of this paper are divided into six chapters: The first chapter is introduction, based on the background of the topic, put forward the main issues of this study, and the Cox model, financial distress early warning and financial distress warning based on Cox model of domestic and foreign research on the status quo is summarized. Finally, the research framework and innovation of this paper are determined. The second chapter related to the basic theory research, through the analysis of corporate governance theory, survival analysis theory, life cycle theory and financial early warning theory. This paper points out the applicability and superiority of Cox model of survival analysis in early warning of financial distress. In the third chapter, the financial distress of real estate enterprises is analyzed, which shows the great significance of this paper. In chapter 4th, the financial indexes of Cox model are designed, comprehensive, systematic and scientifically selected, which are suitable for the financial distress early warning of real estate industry in China. In chapter 5th, the Cox model is applied to the financial distress early warning of real estate industry in our country, and the Cox model suitable for the financial distress early warning of real estate industry in China is constructed. Through the empirical analysis of the financial distress of real estate enterprises in China early warning points out the way. Chapter 6th: conclusions and limitations.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4

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