后危机时代我国房地产过度投资研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 04:02

本文关键词： 房地产开发商过度自信过度投资预售制保障性住房　出处：《河南大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从1998年中国进行商品房市场化改革以后，伴随着中国城市化进程的不断加快，中国房地产市场从无到有从小到大，经历了快速的发展期。特别是从2003年到2007年，迎来了行业发展的黄金期。但是随着2008年金融危机的袭来，一枝独秀的房地产行业也难以独善其身。当年商品房销售数量和销售额双双下挫，首次出现负增长。但是2009年我国房地产业就止跌反增，之后虽增速有所放缓，但总量仍逐年递增。同时为了应对金融危机，中国政府推出了包括4万亿投资计划在内的一系列救市政策，但是在随后的两年时间里，很多专家学者直呼部分行业乱投资，瞎投资，严重导致了重复建设、产能过剩的问题，资金利用效率极低。本文希望通过分析得出我国房地产行业在此期间是否也存在过度投资问题，尽可能从根源上找到房地产过度投资的原因所在，并提出解决办法。过度投资的研究由来已久，在西方主流的影响因素有以下几种：信息不对称，委托代理，自由现金流假说等。而起源于20世纪80年代后期的行为经济学也从微观心理层面对其进行了分析。本文则希望通过实证来验证房地产企业，是否存在过度投资现象的基础上，联系本国实际情况，利用行为经济学数理模型等工具从微观主体和中国的经济制度层面上剖析房地产行业的过度投资现象。文章内容如下：第一部分为绪论，概述了本文的研究背景、目的和意义，总结现有解释过度投资的理论及在各个理论基础上前人所做的研究，并介绍了本文的研究方法和思路。第二部分概括介绍了房地产业在我国经济发展中的重要地位，发展状况以及存在的过度投资的现象。第三部分利用描述统计从多个方向来介绍我国房地产发展现状，并提出问题。第四部分为实证分析部分，，借助Richardson预测模型，对我国房地产上市企业过度投资情况进行验证。第五部分是建立行为金融学半理性数理模型从微观层面分析解释开发商过度自信导致过度投资情况。第六部分主要是从行业和国家经济制度层面，分别从房地产销售制度、房地产信贷和利率非市场化、房地产税收制度、保障性住房建设四个方面来分析我国房地产行业过度投资的问题，并提出相关改革意见。第七部分是结论，对全文进行总结概括。
[Abstract]:Since the market-oriented reform of commercial housing in China in 1998, with the continuous acceleration of China's urbanization process, China's real estate market has grown from nothing to a large. Experienced a period of rapid development, especially from 2003 to 2007, ushered in a golden period of industry development. But with the 2008 financial crisis hit. It is difficult to get away from the real estate industry alone. Both the sales volume and the sales volume of commercial housing fell in those years, and the first negative growth occurred. But in 2009, the real estate industry in our country stopped falling and instead increased. The pace of growth has slowed since then, but the amount has increased year by year. In response to the financial crisis, the Chinese government has launched a series of rescue policies, including a 4 tillion investment plan, but over the next two years. Many experts and scholars have called for some industries to invest indiscriminately, resulting in the problem of repeated construction and overcapacity. Capital utilization efficiency is extremely low. This paper hopes to find out whether the real estate industry of our country also has the problem of excessive investment during this period, and to find out the cause of overinvestment of real estate from the root as far as possible. And put forward the solution. The study of excessive investment has a long history, and the main influencing factors in the West are as follows: asymmetric information, principal-agent. The free cash flow hypothesis and so on. And behavioral economics, which originated in the late 1980s, also analyzes it from the micropsychological level. This paper hopes to verify the real estate enterprises through empirical analysis. On the basis of the phenomenon of overinvestment, this paper analyzes the phenomenon of overinvestment in real estate industry from the view of micro subject and Chinese economic system by means of mathematical model of behavioral economics and so on, according to the actual situation of our country. The content of the article is as follows: the first part is the introduction, which summarizes the research background, purpose and significance of this paper, summarizes the existing theories to explain overinvestment and the research done by predecessors on the basis of each theory. The second part introduces the important position of the real estate industry in the economic development of our country. The third part uses description statistics to introduce the current situation of real estate development in China from many directions, and puts forward some questions. Part 4th is the empirical analysis part. With the help of Richardson prediction model. This paper verifies the overinvestment of real estate listed enterprises in our country. 5th part is to establish behavioral finance semi-rational mathematical model to explain the overconfidence of developers leading to overinvestment in 6th part. At the level of industry and national economic systems. From the real estate sales system, real estate credit and interest rate non-marketization, real estate tax system, affordable housing construction to analyze the four aspects of China's real estate industry excessive investment. And puts forward the relevant reform opinion. 7th part is the conclusion, carries on the summary to the full text.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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