房地产泡沫的综合评价及宏观调控政策研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 05:36

本文关键词： 房地产泡沫模糊综合评价层次分析指标权重宏观调控政策　出处：《沈阳建筑大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产行业在我国整个国民经济体系中占有十分重要的作用,房地产行业是一个新兴支柱产业和建筑业的结合,是国民经济的支柱产业。不论是从促进经济增长角度,还是在满足人民的物质生活需求方面,都具有无可替代的作用。尤其是对于正在高速发展的中国,保持房地产市场健康稳定的发展就是一项艰巨而复杂的任务。本文分别从理论研究、实证研究及政策建议方面来叙述,共六章。首先本文通过阅读大量的相关文献,梳理泡沫理论及其相关理论,从问题的背景与课题意义开始论述理论研究部分,着重介绍了国内外关于房地产泡沫政策研究的现状；探讨房地产泡沫的成长阶段；分析经济泡沫与泡沫经济的区别；深入归纳了房地产泡沫形成的主观因素和客观因素；描述了房地产泡沫的几种表现形式；着重指出房地产泡沫具有两面性,是一把双刃剑,既有利也有弊。在适度的房地产泡沫阶段,可以合理的引导消费需求,扩大内需,拉动经济增长,从而促进整个国民经济的健康发展。但是如果泡沫程度非常严重,过于膨胀,就会扰乱正常的经济市场秩序,抑制其他行业的发展,造成社会资源的分配不均衡,引发金融危机,最终给社会带来严重的危害。其次,本文在充分研究前人对房地产泡沫的检测方法的基础上,筛选出比较合适的评价方法——模糊综合评价法。因为采用精确的数学方法,依据严谨的推理过程来分析评价房地产泡沫时,往往会造成量化对象勉强、量化过程简单,其结论可能与实际情况相差很多,影响评价的客观性和准确性,所以用模糊综合评价法来研究模糊指标问题是最合适的。通过研究得出结论：①通过利用模糊综合评价法对沈阳房地产泡沫进行综合评价后,经评价系数显示,目前沈阳市的确存在房地产泡沫,但只是处于适度的泡沫阶段,整体市场发展基本处于健康状态。②基于模糊综合评价法对目前沈阳市房地产泡沫的检测与评价结果基本上与国家政府机构发布的信息相吻合,研究数据不存在虚假成分,可见模糊综合评价法在检测房地产泡沫中是适用的方法。最后,通过上述的研究分析后,笔者针对于不同阶段的房地产市场泡沫,分别提出了切实有效的宏观调控政策建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry plays a very important role in the whole national economic system of our country. The real estate industry is a combination of a new pillar industry and construction industry. Is the pillar industry of the national economy. Whether from the point of promoting economic growth or in meeting the material needs of the people, there is an irreplaceable role, especially for China, which is developing at a high speed. Maintaining the healthy and stable development of the real estate market is a difficult and complex task. This article from the theoretical research, empirical research and policy recommendations to describe, a total of six chapters. First of all, through reading a large number of relevant literature, combing foam theory and related theories, from the background of the problem and the significance of the topic began to discuss the theoretical research part. The present situation of research on real estate bubble policy at home and abroad is introduced emphatically. Discuss the growth stage of real estate bubble; Analyze the difference between economic bubble and bubble economy; The subjective and objective factors of the formation of the real estate bubble are summarized in depth. Describes several forms of real estate bubble; It is pointed out emphatically that the real estate bubble has two sides and is a double-edged sword, which has both advantages and disadvantages. In the moderate stage of real estate bubble, it can reasonably guide consumption demand, expand domestic demand and stimulate economic growth. So as to promote the healthy development of the whole national economy. But if the bubble is very serious and inflated, it will disturb the normal economic market order and restrain the development of other industries. It causes unbalanced distribution of social resources, leads to financial crisis, and finally brings serious harm to society. Secondly, based on the study of the previous methods of real estate bubble detection, this paper screened out a more suitable evaluation method-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, because of the use of accurate mathematical methods. According to the rigorous reasoning process to analyze and evaluate the real estate bubble, it will often cause the quantification object reluctantly, the quantification process is simple, its conclusion may differ a lot from the actual situation, affects the objectivity and the accuracy of the evaluation. So it is most appropriate to use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study the fuzzy index problem. Conclusion: 1 through the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of Shenyang real estate foam comprehensive evaluation, the evaluation coefficient shows. At present, there is a real estate bubble in Shenyang, but it is only in a moderate bubble stage. The overall market development is basically in a healthy state. 2. Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the detection and evaluation results of the real estate bubble in Shenyang are basically consistent with the information released by the national government agencies. There is no false component in the data, so fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a suitable method in real estate bubble detection. Finally, after the above research and analysis, the author puts forward effective macro-control policy recommendations for different stages of real estate market bubble.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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