房地产开发用地投标内控价格确定模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 02:04

本文关键词： 房地产开发投标内控价格投标报价模型　出处：《吉林大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：受到安居乐业的传统观念影响，中国人非常看重住房，在供需两旺的市场刺激下，中国房地产行业蓬勃发展了十年。期间，大体趋势是上涨的。随着土地市场的持续火热和过度开发，作为有限资源的土地，其供应量日益减少，供需紧张致使房价不断攀高，房企依照一贯良好的市场预期出手拿地，一再推高土地价格，致使拿地成本越来越高，增加了房企的投资风险。房地产发展到今天，消耗了大量的市场购买力，加上高房价让很多中低收入人群望而却步，市场消化能力已大不如前，房地产必将经历一次行业调整，房价很可能出现起伏。这迫使房企必须调整投资策略，摒弃粗放的投资模式，加强成本控制。拿地价格是开发成本中一项重要的组成部分，是一项数额比重巨大的前期投入，对后续开发影响深远，因此研究开发用地报价的确定方法是十分有意义的。本文分成开发方案明晰和不明晰两种情况来研究开发用地投标内控价格确定模型。在开发方案明晰的情况下，构造了一个新的报价确定模型，此模型建立在Hanssman-Rivett投标报价模型的基础上，并在计算模型参数的过程中引入价格指数，，使不同时期的项目具备价格上的可比性，降低了样本的选取难度。在开发方案不明晰的情况下，采用和现行开发方案相同的定价模型，创新之处是在方案比选过程中使用了最小最大后悔值法。然后通过本模型同现行开发用地报价方法的比对，提出本模型的优势和不足。最后，将两种情况下的模型应用到一宗长春市的土地出让案例上，以显示该模型的应用价值。本文希望通过提出一种新的投标定价方法，为房企提供更科学的拿地决策工具，提高投资决策的准确性和合理性，促进我国房地产行业的良性发展。
[Abstract]:Influenced by the traditional idea of living and working in peace and contentment, Chinese people attach great importance to housing, and China's real estate industry has flourished for a decade under the stimulus of both supply and demand. The general trend is rising. With the continuous hot and over-development of land market, as a limited resource of land, the supply of land is decreasing day by day, and the supply and demand is tight, resulting in rising house prices. Housing enterprises in accordance with a consistent good market expectations to take the land, repeatedly push up land prices, resulting in higher and higher land costs, increasing the investment risk of housing enterprises. Real estate development to today, consumption of a large number of market purchasing power, coupled with high house prices so that many low- and middle-income people are deterred, the market digestion capacity has been greatly inferior to before, real estate will go through an industry adjustment. Housing prices are likely to fluctuate. This forces housing companies to adjust their investment strategies, abandon extensive investment models and strengthen cost control. Land prices are an important part of development costs. It is a huge amount of pre-investment, and has a far-reaching impact on the subsequent development, so it is very meaningful to study the method of determining the quotation of development land. This paper is divided into two cases: clear development plan and unclear development plan to study the pricing model of internal control of development land bidding. In the case of clear development plan, a new pricing determination model is constructed. This model is based on the Hanssman-Rivett bidding quotation model, and the price index is introduced in the process of calculating the parameters of the model, so that the items in different periods have price comparability. The difficulty of sample selection is reduced. When the development plan is not clear, the same pricing model as the current development scheme is adopted. The innovation is that the minimum maximum regret value method is used in the process of scheme comparison. Then the advantages and disadvantages of this model are put forward by comparing this model with the current development land quotation method. The two models are applied to a land transfer case in Changchun to show the application value of the model. This paper hopes to put forward a new bidding pricing method to provide a more scientific decision-making tool for real estate enterprises, improve the accuracy and rationality of investment decisions, and promote the benign development of the real estate industry in China.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F301.2

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