政府管制下我国房地产业SCP范式研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 08:05

本文关键词： 房地产政府管制 SCP范式集中度——利润率假说　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国GDP产值不断增高，其中，，房地产业对我国GDP产值增加具有不可忽略的贡献作用；同时房地产是我国财政收入重要来源之一，房地产业关联性极强，直接影响上游企业和下游企业的发展，对就业的拉动作用也非常明显。总而言之，房地产业对于推动整个社会的发展具有不可替代的作用。考虑到我国房地产行业在发展过程中的特殊性，本文认为脱离政府谈房地产市场本身不具备太多实际意义。因此，在研究我国房地产业SCP范式之前，本文先对政府管制作出研究。文中通过政府对房地产市场供需两方面管制的研究，明确政府调控对于房地产市场的影响；并对政府管制时存款准备金、长期贷款利率、新开工面积变动对房地产价格及投资的影响做出脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。我国中小型房地产企业在政府强压之下纷纷选择退出房地产市场，大型、有实力的房企趁机兼并收购中小型企业，即政府对于房地产市场的调控并不会直接引起市场结构的变化，而会直接引起企业行为的变化，因此，本文在进行我国31个省份房地产市场SCP范式研究时，先进行市场行为研究，然后进行市场结构与市场绩效的研究。最后运用EVIEWS6.0对剔除数据不全面省份的23个省份集中度——利润率假说进行面板数据计量分析和验证。研究结果表明：政府管制对房地产市场并购行为影响显著，我国市场并购行为近年来大量增加，但我国市场结构依然是竞争型市场，基本没有形成垄断，我国的市场利润率整体来看也较低，并不是暴利的行业，但近年来市场利润率确有增大的趋势；我国各个地区集中度——利润率关系并不相同。研究结果对于政府最大启示是房地产市场政府的调控手段均有效果，但效果却大不相同，简单来说，只要合理抑制房价，过度投资或投机的问题自然就会得到解决。同时，我国31个地区的具体情况完全不同，政府在制定政策时，应该综合各个地区当地具体情况，制定最适合的政策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's GDP output value has been increasing, among which, the real estate industry has contributed to the increase of China's GDP output value. At the same time, real estate is one of the important sources of financial revenue in China. The real estate industry has a strong correlation, which directly affects the development of upstream and downstream enterprises, and has a very obvious pull on employment. Real estate industry plays an irreplaceable role in promoting the development of the whole society. Considering the particularity of the development of the real estate industry in our country, this paper thinks that it is not much practical significance to talk about the real estate market without the government. Therefore, before studying the SCP paradigm of the real estate industry in our country. Through the research of the government regulation on the supply and demand of the real estate market, this paper clarifies the influence of the government regulation on the real estate market. And to the government control when the deposit reserve, long-term loan interest rate. Under the pressure of the government, the small and medium-sized real estate enterprises choose to withdraw from the real estate market. Powerful housing enterprises take advantage of the opportunity to merger and purchase small and medium-sized enterprises, that is, the regulation and control of the real estate market will not directly cause changes in market structure, but will directly cause changes in the behavior of enterprises. In this paper, 31 provinces in the real estate market SCP paradigm research, first of all, market behavior research. Then the market structure and market performance are studied. Finally, the panel data analysis and verification of the hypothesis of concentration-profit rate of 23 provinces excluding incomplete data are carried out by using EVIEWS6.0. The results show that: government regulation has a significant impact on the real estate market M & A behavior, China's market M & A behavior has increased in recent years, but the market structure of our country is still a competitive market, basically no monopoly. The market profit rate of our country is also low on the whole, it is not a profiteering industry, but in recent years the market profit margin has a tendency to increase; The relationship between concentration ratio and profit margin is not the same in different regions of China. The biggest revelation to the government is that the real estate market government has effect, but the effect is very different. The problem of excessive investment or speculation will naturally be solved as long as housing prices are reasonably restrained. Meanwhile, the specific situation in 31 regions of China is completely different, when the government formulates policies. Local conditions should be integrated into each region and the most appropriate policies should be formulated.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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