住宅价格调控政策研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 23:49

本文关键词： 住宅价格房地产泡沫土地政策金融政策税收政策　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来房地产市场的发展迅速，但是在发展的同时也存在着严重的问题，主要问题体现在住宅价格的持续上涨，尤其是2004年以来，住宅价格的快速上涨。住宅市场的繁荣发展一方面促进经济发展，另一方面会使很多居民难以承受如此高昂的房价。本文以我国住宅价格为研究对象，以住房与住房服务、资产定价与供求定价、房地产泡沫、影响因素的计量分析及住宅价格调控政策效果分析为研究框架。首先，本文对住房及住房服务进行了区分，并定义了房地产泡沫及测度泡沫工具—房价收入比、房价租售比两个指标；对住宅资产定价及房地产市场供求定价理论进行了论述，并理顺二者的关系；最后从住房供求两方面对住宅价格的影响因素进行分类论述，提出理论假设。其次，在进行实证分析前对我国土地市场的特殊性进行了梳理，并指出地价对住宅价格的影响；然后以全国30个大中城市的1998年至2011年9个解释变量的面板数据构建计量分析模型，从住房供求两方面对住宅价格的影响因素进行了计量分析；并对住宅用地价格、房价预期与住宅价格之间的关系进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。再次，本文总结了历年房价调控政策，在实证分析的基础上对我国房价调控政策进行效果分析；主要从土地政策、金融政策及税收政策3个方面来进行分析。最后，，本文的研究结论总结了本文的研究成果以及存在的不足。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate market has developed rapidly, but at the same time there are also serious problems, the main problems are reflected in the continued rise in housing prices, especially since 2004. The boom in the housing market will boost the economy on the one hand and make it difficult for many residents to afford such high prices on the other. This paper takes housing price as the research object, housing and housing service, asset pricing and supply and demand pricing, real estate bubble, influencing factors and the effect of housing price regulation policy analysis as the research framework. First of all, this paper distinguishes housing and housing services, and defines the real estate bubble and the measurement of bubble instruments-house price income ratio, housing rent to sales ratio two indicators; This paper discusses the theory of housing asset pricing and real estate market supply and demand pricing, and straightens out the relationship between them. Finally, the paper classifies and discusses the influencing factors of housing price from two aspects of housing supply and demand, and puts forward theoretical hypotheses. Secondly, the particularity of China's land market is combed before the empirical analysis, and the impact of land price on housing price is pointed out. Then based on the panel data of 9 explanatory variables from 1998 to 2011 in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China, the econometric analysis model is constructed, and the influencing factors of housing price are analyzed from the two aspects of housing supply and demand. And Granger causality test is carried out on the relationship between residential land price, house price expectation and housing price. Thirdly, this paper summarizes the housing price control policies over the years, on the basis of empirical analysis of China's housing price control policy effect analysis; Mainly from the land policy, the financial policy and the tax policy three aspects carries on the analysis. Finally, the conclusion of this paper summarizes the research results and shortcomings.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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