房地产市场发展趋势与商业银行融资机遇

发布时间：2018-01-31 11:55

本文关键词： 房地产市场阶段性趋势商业银行融资模式　出处：《新金融》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2016年商品房市场销售额进入历史性高位,但在2017年3月之后迅速"冷冻",在这一轮最严调控的背后,是市场"长效机制"的胎动,还是仅仅为政策的"应时之举"?作为房企和购房者主要融资渠道的商业银行,未来将如何开展房地产市场业务?回答这些问题均需要对房地产市场走势和房企盈利模式进行不同阶段的预判。短期来看,并购重组和价值提升成为地产市场的短期主线;中期来看,市场分化进一步显著,一线城市和热点二线城市的"棚改"项目将成为市场业务主力军;长期来看,老龄化社会的来临预示着养老、旅游等新型业态模式将渐趋主流。对此,商业银行也应采取阶段性和差异化的业务开展策略:短期来看,可重点推进一线和二线核心城市房地产项目并购融资和开发贷款联动模式,以及棚改和自住型商品房PPP合作模式;中期来看,应有序推进一线及部分热点二线城市的类REITs、CMBS等创新产品;长期来看,要推进养老地产、特色小城镇、旅游地产等地产新兴项目的开发融资。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the commercial housing market sales reached a historic high, but after March 2017 quickly "frozen", in this round of the most stringent control behind, is the market "long-term effect mechanism." Or is it just a policy response? As housing enterprises and buyers of the main financing channels of commercial banks, how to carry out the real estate market business in the future? To answer these questions, we need to predict the trend of real estate market and the profit model of real estate enterprises in different stages. In the short run, M & A and value promotion become the main line of real estate market. In the medium term, the market differentiation is further remarkable, the "shed reform" project of first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities will become the main force of market business; In the long run, the coming of aging society indicates that the new pattern of old-age care and tourism will gradually become mainstream. For this, commercial banks should also adopt the strategy of stage and differentiation of business development: in the short term. It can focus on promoting the mode of merger and acquisition financing and development loan of the core urban real estate projects in the first and second lines, as well as the PPP cooperation mode of the shed reform and the self-occupied commercial housing; In the medium term, innovative products such as REITs and CMBS should be promoted in an orderly manner. Long-term, to promote endowment property, small towns, tourism real estate and other new real estate development financing.
【作者单位】：中国工商银行博士后科研工作站;中国工商银行投资银行部;中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4
【正文快照】： 进入2017年,绝大多数房地产的利益相关者嗅到了新的风向:商品房市场销售额在2016年超过10万亿元后,行业进入历史性高位;这一轮最严调控的背后是“长效机制”的胎动;房地产市场的主流参与者也可能意识到,依靠过去路径实现大规模增长的长期基础已削弱。过去一年多,万科提出“白

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