人口老龄化与房价波动——来自中国的经验证据

发布时间：2018-02-01 05:05

本文关键词： 人口老龄化房价波动系统广义矩估计区域差异　出处：《财经科学》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：老龄化是否会引起房价的波动、直接影响中国房地产市场的平稳运行,进而影响国家经济安全与社会的和谐稳定。本文采用面板协整检验证明了人口年龄结构是房价波动的长期影响因素,并基于系统广义矩估计等方法,讨论了人口老龄化对我国房价波动的影响、区域差异、形成原因及政策建议。研究表明:人口老龄化曾对房价上涨起到推动作用,但从中长期来看,此趋势可能发生逆转。在东部地区,人口变量对房价的弹性最小,且青年人口比例与房价成反向关系,表明东部地区刚需人群支付能力与高房价间存在矛盾;在中、西部地区,青年人口价格弹性也较老年人口价格弹性更小,部分地区房价或已脱离实体经济,应予以足够重视。
[Abstract]:Whether aging will cause the fluctuation of house price will directly affect the smooth operation of China's real estate market. This paper uses panel cointegration test to prove that the age structure of population is the long-term influence factor of house price fluctuation, and based on the method of generalized moment estimation and so on. This paper discusses the impact of population aging on the fluctuation of house prices in China, regional differences, causes of formation and policy recommendations. The study shows that the aging population has played a role in promoting the rise of house prices, but in the medium and long term. This trend may be reversed. In the eastern region, the elasticity of population variables to house prices is the least, and the proportion of young population is inversely related to housing prices, which indicates that there is a contradiction between the capacity to pay and the high housing prices of the rigid demand population in the eastern region. In the middle and western regions, the price elasticity of the youth population is also smaller than that of the elderly population. In some areas, housing prices may have been divorced from the real economy, which should be paid enough attention to.
【作者单位】：四川大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“人口老龄化对资产价格的影响研究:基于中国市场的实证”(编号:13XJC790007) 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71350009)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F293.35
【正文快照】： 一、引言近年来,人口老龄化问题已成为我国经济社会发展面临的重大考验。截至2013年年末,中国65岁及以上人口已占总人口的9.7%,远高于其他发展中国家的平均水平5%。为应对“未富先老”这一严峻挑战,长期以来,学界展开了广泛讨论,但研究主要集中在中国经济如何承受养老之重上,

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